Despite Tension, Armenian Prime Minister Optimistic for Peace with Azerbaijan

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia visiting Moscow in 2019 (Wikimedia Commons)

Speaking at the United Nations on September 26th, Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is “within reach,” suggesting that a fraught peace process is nearing completion. Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a bilateral agreement on August 30th regulating a future border commission between the two countries, according to the Anadolu Agency, and Pashinyan is optimistic that a broader peace agreement will be signed.

Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have centered around the disputed Karabakh region, a historically majority-Armenian territory within Azerbaijan’s legally recognized borders. However, the territory was de facto independent as the Republic of Artsakh from 1994 until two conflicts erupted, one in 2020 in which Azerbaijan captured a significant proportion of Artsakh territory, and one in 2023 when Azerbaijani troops blockaded Artsakh and eventually occupied it, according to Vox. 

The Armenian constitution still recognizes Karabakh as integral Armenian territory, which, according to Eurasianet, presents the most formidable challenge to the peace process. The Azerbaijani government has also accused the Armenians of slow-walking the peace process. President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan has suggested that the Armenians are stalling in order to accomplish a western-backed military build-up, according to Caspian News.  Moreover, the negotiations have attracted significant opposition within Armenia. A series of protests led by Bishop Bagrat Galstanyan of the Armenian Apostolic Church have attracted significant numbers and have occasionally turned violent, according to The World, and Galstanyan has stated his openness to serving as prime minister in order to remove Pashinyan. 

Although both governments are notionally committed to peace and are optimistic, mutual suspicion and domestic opposition could derail any planned peace agreement. Securing peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a major part of American efforts to deepen relations with Armenia, according to Uzra Zeya, a State Department official, and a failure of the talks could push Armenia back towards their cooling alliance with Russia.