Gaza Ceasefire At-Risk as Israel Prepares for a Return to War
Family members of Israeli hostages pray for their return (Flickr)
Israel and Hamas indicated on February 13, 2025, that an originally planned release of three hostages would proceed two days later on February 15 after having been in jeopardy for several days. This follows a week of uncertainty as to whether the ceasefire that was supposed to guarantee the hostages’ release would collapse. Hamas had demanded that Israel adhere more closely to the terms of the ceasefire, and it is currently unclear whether the breakthrough was a result of dropping those demands or a product of negotiation.
The heightened diplomatic tension began when Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida announced in a Telegram post on February 10, 2025, that a hostage exchange scheduled to take place the following weekend had been put on hold indefinitely. This statement was made in response to what he described as “a host of violations of the cease-fire agreement, including delaying the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza, blocking the delivery of some humanitarian aid, and opening fire on civilians.”
The Gaza Ministry of Health reports that at least 110 Palestinians have been killed in such attacks since the start of the ceasefire on January 19. For its part, Israel confirmed that it had fired upon several people in the northern Gaza Strip, reporting only that “hits were identified.”
A member of Hamas’ political bureau, Basem Naim, said in a statement that “Israel's procrastination and lack of commitment in implementing the first phase...certainly exposes this agreement to danger and thus it may stop or collapse."
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that he intends to prevent the ceasefire from moving forward to its second phase by ordering negotiators to demand conditions that are either unacceptable to Hamas or in violation of the ceasefire’s terms. Phase Two would include a permanent end to fighting and a full withdrawal of Israeli forces. Some of these unacceptable conditions include the exiling of Hamas’ leadership, the dismantling of the Al Qassam Brigades (Hamas’ military wing), and a continued IDF presence in the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border.
Despite the ceasefire terms requiring that negotiations on the second phase begin the week of February 3, Israeli negotiators dispatched to Qatar were reportedly not under instructions to negotiate this part of the deal. This has called into question whether Israel is negotiating in good faith. Netanyahu stated on Monday to the Knesset,“You wanted a day after [plan]? You got one… I’ve come back with a vision without Hamas and without the Palestinian Authority…We know what complete victory is and we will not give up on it.”
Despite February 13th’s announcement, Egyptian security sources reported that the current situation puts the entire ceasefire in serious jeopardy. Furthermore, even if the ceasefire does not collapse completely, the situation is likely to continue shakily under the conditions of Phase One, allowing Israel to maintain a permanent military presence in the Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, Israel has once again called up reservists in preparation for a return to conflict, which newly appointed Defense Minister Israel Katz states is what will happen if hostages are not released as scheduled on February 15. While U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that all remaining hostages must be released by that date (which would be a violation of the ceasefire agreement’s terms), Netanyahu and the War Cabinet have remained ambiguous on their expectations.