“The Fate of the World Rests Upon This Election”: Germans Head to the Polls February 23

Coalition dynamics loom large as the center-right dominates opinion polling but seems unlikely to gain a governing majority.

Following months of political infighting and sharp policy divides among its constituent parties, Germany’s center-left governing coalition collapsed in November 2024. As a result, the country is holding a snap general election on February 23, 2025. The outcome is widely expected to reshape the composition of the Bundestag, the lower house of the German parliament, and could profoundly alter the political trajectory of the European Union’s most populous democracy. 

Even before the collapse of the coalition government led by the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), opinion polls consistently indicated a stable preference for the center-right among German voters heading into the general election. The Christian Democratic Union, along with its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU), is expected to secure about 30 percent of the seats in the Bundestag, a clear plurality but far from the 50 percent required to form a unilateral governing majority. 

As a result, the central question gripping German politics is not who will win the most seats, but rather which parties will constitute Germany’s new governing coalition. The question of coalition dynamics is especially important as the CDU-CSU, as well as the rest of Germany’s political parties, have ruled out the possibility of working with the party currently polling in second place, the far-right and highly divisive Alternative for Germany (AfD). 

There is a long-standing taboo in German politics against working with far-right political parties such as AfD. The decision of Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU-CSU, to break this norm by collaborating with AfD — which is officially categorized as a suspected extremist organization by German intelligence — to pass hard-line immigration legislation triggered mass protests denouncing not only the far right but also the CDU-CSU itself. In response, CDU-CSU leadership has scrambled to assure the public that they have no intention to break the “firewall” against allying with AfD.

Thus, the center-right faces a choice among several possible coalition partners. Germany’s classic governing coalition is the “grand coalition,” or GroKo, consisting of the CDU-CSU and the SPD. However, with the SPD currently polling at around 17 percent nationally, it remains questionable whether a GroKo will be able to garner over 50 percent of the seats in the Bundestag. Even if the CDU-CSU and the SPD together garner a majority of seats, collaboration between the two parties may prove difficult. The CDU-CSU has shifted significantly to the right under Merz’s leadership, and it may struggle to find enough common ground to jointly govern with the center-left. 

Another potential outcome is the so-called Kiwi coalition – an alliance between the CDU-CSU and the Green Party. This coalition exists at the state level in multiple places, but the two parties have never allied to run the national government. The success of a Kiwi coalition in the Bundestag would hinge on whether or not the CDU-CSU and the Greens have sufficient policy overlap; the two parties align on foreign policy but have sharply divergent views on issues of migration. 

Finally, depending on the success of Germany’s minor parties, including the left-wing populist BSW or the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), the CDU-CSU may find it necessary to form a tripartite coalition, collaborating with two other parties to form a governing majority. Possible outcomes include a “Germany coalition” of the CDU-CSU, SPD, and FDP, or a “Kenya coalition” of the CDU-CSU, SPD, and the Greens. Political commentators fear that should the CDU-CSU be forced to form a tripartite coalition, political disagreements among the coalition partners could doom the new government to the same political infighting that fragmented the previous governing coalition. 

Looming large beyond domestic coalition politics are the larger geopolitical implications of the outcome of the German election. Elon Musk, billionaire advisor to President Donald Trump, endorsed AfD in late 2024. He has since been attempting to use his widespread influence to garner support for the far-right party, arguing that “the fate of the world” depends on the outcome of Germany’s general election. Although Musk’s endorsement appears to have had little effect in opinion polling, his comments come while many populist far-right parties gain ground across Europe. Germans’ decisions at the polls on February 23 — and the ultimate governing coalition that results — will be influential in determining the overall trend of Europe’s contentious relationship with the far right, as well as the way in which the continent negotiates its relationship with the United States and beyond in the coming years.