ANALYSIS: Will Georgia Ever Join the EU?
Protesters gather outside of the Georgian parliament to contest the results of the October 2024 parliamentary elections. (Wikimedia Commons)
Georgia surpasses 80 days of continuous anti-government protests as the European Union must decide how to respond to the Georgian government’s increasingly illiberal behavior.
Georgia is a country at a crossroads. Slightly smaller than the state of West Virginia, the nation is nestled in the Caucasus mountains, bordered to the north and east by Russia, to the south by Turkey and Armenia, and to the west by the Black Sea. The country, classified as a partly free democracy by Freedom House, faces an uncertain political future.
Georgia’s ruling political party, Georgian Dream, has led the country down a path of precipitous democratic backsliding, with concerns about Georgian democracy having come to a head in the wake of the country’s October 2024 parliamentary elections. Georgian Dream won a parliamentary majority in an election marred by accusations of ballot falsifications, voter intimidation, and large inconsistencies between exit poll data and the Central Election Commission’s official results.
The fallout from the Georgian parliamentary elections has been swift and striking, particularly as it relates to the nuanced relationship between Georgian civil society, the Georgian Dream government, and the European Union. Despite more than 80 percent of the Georgian population being in favor of EU accession, the Georgian government withdrew from membership talks with the EU on November 28, 2024, postponing them until at least 2028. The resulting protests have elicited a severe crackdown on the part of the Georgian government against civil society.
Should international actors—in particular, the EU—fail to take action on behalf of pro-democracy forces in Europe, the fate of Georgia’s future in Europe and of its very status as a democracy will continue to dim.
Ever since Georgia gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, integration into the European Union has become a core component of the country’s long-term foreign policy strategy. An alliance with the West and becoming a part of its institutional framework, manifested most clearly in the country’s desire to join the EU, is widely perceived as the best way to stave off Russian imperial aggression and preserve Georgian sovereignty. The 1999 Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between the EU and Georgia marked the beginning of institutional cooperation, which ultimately resulted in Georgia being granted candidate status in December 2023.
The Georgian Dream government has had a complicated relationship with Georgia’s ambitions to become a member of the European Union. Under the leadership of Georgian Dream, the country signed the EU-Georgia Association Agreement, creating a free trade area between Georgia and the EU; concluded an agreement to allow Georgian citizens to travel visa-free for a limited period of time in the Schengen Zone; and amended the constitution to make joining the EU a constitutional obligation.
In recent years, however, the Georgian government has become both increasingly illiberal and anti-European. Since coming to power in 2012, Georgian Dream has eroded Georgian democracy by expanding its control over state institutions like the Central Election Commission, undermining media independence, and interfering with elections. Furthermore, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Georgian government has catered to the Kremlin, including by refusing to join in with Western sanctions against Russia and promoting Russian talking points that blame NATO expansion for the war.
Georgian Dream’s swing towards Russia is exemplified by the passage of the Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence in May 2024. This law, modeled after Russia’s own “foreign agent” law, requires nongovernmental organizations that receive at least 20 percent of their funding from abroad to register as “organizations that carry out the interests of a foreign power.” This label subjects these NGOs to intense surveillance and monitoring by the Georgian government. Civil society activists have argued that the law is intended to crack down against independent organizations that monitor the Georgian government.
Following the passage of the Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence, as well as other legislation targeting the media and undermining LGBTQ+ rights, the European Parliament froze all EU funding to the Georgian parliament until the laws were repealed, essentially placing Georgia’s candidate status on hold.
The EU’s confrontation with Georgia escalated following the October 2024 parliamentary elections, which were reported to be highly irregular. Election observers cited instances of fraud, including voters being given multiple ballots or ballots that were pre-marked for Georgian Dream, voter and observer intimidation, and ballot falsifications. In November, citing these concerns, the European Parliament called for new elections in Georgia. They also called for sanctions against Georgian Dream leadership, including individuals such as Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and billionaire oligarch and Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili.
Rather than responding to EU pressure, Georgian Dream has doubled down on its anti-European stance. A large wave of civil society activism followed the formal suspension of Georgia’s candidate status by the Georgian government, with anti-protests having persisted for more than 80 days at the time of this article. The government has responded forcefully to these protests. Multiple opposition leaders, including the leader of one of Georgia’s pro-European political parties, have been arrested, and there are reports of security forces beating detained protesters.
Georgian Dream’s authoritarian takeover is accelerating, and so far, the West has decided against taking major steps to counteract this backsliding. In November 2024, the United States criticized the Georgian government’s decision to suspend the EU accession process and, in turn, halted the two countries’ strategic partnership. However, the Trump administration has signaled a lack of interest in democracy promotion, evidenced by a directive to the State Department to cut off funding for programs focused on democracy and human rights. As a result, the European Union is under pressure to counteract the increasingly authoritarian actions of the Georgian government and support pro-democracy forces inside the country itself.
One way the EU can put pressure on the Georgian Dream government and demonstrate its support for the Georgian people is through the EU's Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime. This would allow the EU to sanction officials who authorized the use of force against peaceful protesters. The EU can also impose visa requirements for Georgian officials within the Schengen Zone. Actions like these targeting Georgian Dream leadership would not only impose financial burden and practical inconvenience, but they would also demonstrate to the Georgian people that the EU supports their push for democracy and integration with Europe.
However, the imposition of sanctions or the reinstatement of visa requirements would require approval by the European Council. This poses a significant challenge because the Council makes decisions by consensus—the Council will carry out a proposal only if all member states are in agreement. As a result, the Georgian Dream government may be able to rely on its illiberal allies within the EU—most notably Hungary’s Viktor Orbán—to block attempts to impose sanctions.
As Georgia hurtles towards 100 days of continuous protest against Georgian Dream’s attempted authoritarian takeover, what the EU chooses to do—or not do—may prove decisive. If the EU fails to act, either by neglecting to impose sanctions or by failing to call for new elections, Georgian Dream gains the upper hand. All the government must do is wait out the protests, and should that strategy fail, it could intensify its crackdown on the opposition until it can no longer effectively organize.
Should Georgian opposition crumble, pro-democratic forces cede yet another crucial battleground in a context of authoritarianism gaining ground across the globe. It remains to be seen whether Georgian civil society will continue to stand firm against Georgian Dream’s illiberal rule—and whether the EU will choose to intervene in their struggle for democracy.