The Shifting U.S. Central Asia Plan

The United States is seeking to ink mineral deals with Central Asian countries (Flickr/Gage Skidmore).

The meeting between U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and his Kazakh counterpart Almassadam Satkaliyev in Houston on March 13, focused on critical minerals and increasing economic ties, offered a clear peek into the latest US policy on Central Asia, according to the Kazakh government. Despite the U.S. divestment from humanitarian aid and the ending of USAID operations, economic and geopolitical incentives to invest in the region continue to grow. Central Asian countries have significant copper, lithium, nickel, and antimony reserves. 

The United States’ desire to decrease reliance on Chinese resources and the necessity of mineral resources for burgeoning technological development, along with these recent meetings, suggest a continued US interest in securing mineral resources. Per the Kazakh government, the meeting followed U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s discussion with the Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister-Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu, which focused on strengthening economic ties between the two nations in energy, telecommunications, and critical minerals. 

The United States was the first country to recognize Kazakhstan after the Soviet Union’s dissolution. However, U.S. influence in Central Asia has been historically limited. As U.S. foreign policy focused on security concerns linked to Afghanistan, the rest of the region has been seen as little more than a launch pad, states RAND.

In comparison, Russia is arguably the historic player in the region. From the 19th century until the collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asia was under the Russian sphere of control. Central Asian migrant workers significantly bolster the Russian economy, and, despite the collapse of the Soviet Union over 30 years ago, the Russian language is still seen as the lingua franca, spoken in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, highlights Voice of America. But Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine and ongoing conflict have raised Central Asian concerns about Russia’s ability to maintain security and investment, opening the door to new partnerships and transit routes.

China has already successfully established itself as a critical mineral giant in Central Asia. Tajikistan has rich antimony reserves, a mineral essential for defense and electronics that China has begun restricting to the US, reports S&P Global. However,  78% of Tajik’s output is sent to China for processing, and Kyrgyzstan holds another 13% of the global reserve of antimony. According to Eurasianet, China has been the primary foreign investor in Kyrgyzstan since 2023, making the majority of its investments in mining, infrastructure, and manufacturing. In 2024, the Chinese mining company Huaxin inked a deal with the Kyrgyz state to develop the Kol-Jangak coal field, states AKIpress. China has prioritized economic investment in Central Asia for years, particularly to develop and stabilize its western province of Xinjiang. 

U.S. efforts to counter Chinese dominance in critical minerals appear to be ramping up with the recent discussions between U.S. and Kazakh officials, but China’s deep-rooted economic presence in Central Asia presents a major hurdle alongside Russia’s historic role. The recent discussions indicate a shift in U.S. policy towards economic engagement in Central Asia, particularly in securing access to critical minerals. While traditional diplomatic engagement in the region has waned, economic and security interests are driving a recalibration of U.S. policy.