Ethiopia Federal Government To Select New Regional Leadership in Tigray Amidst Fears of War

Over 600,000 people live in the regional capital of Mekele in Tigray, Ethiopia (Wikimedia Commons). 

Ethiopia’s federal government will install a new regional president in Tigray in response to factional violence in the northern region. 

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced on March 26 that he planned to replace Tigray’s leader, Getachew Reda. This announcement follows the rapid loss of control of the current government over the region following the seizure of the regional capital and a major city by a faction in the ruling party, the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TLPF). Led by former Deputy Prime Minister Debretsion Gebremichael, military forces had seized government offices and radio stations in the major city of Adigrat and regional capital of Mekele on March 11 and 13, respectively. Forces replaced local officials, leading to fears of renewed civil war. 

Although official leadership of the TLPF has downplayed the incident, the rivalry between the two faction leaders has bubbled over the last year. Debretsion dismissed Getachew from the TLPF, and Getachew suspended three critical generals of the faction. Debretsion justifies the seizure of Mekele by accusing Getachew of “treason” against the Tigray people. Getachew denounced Debretsion operations as an “open coup,” flying to the capital of Addis Ababa to seek federal support. Debretsion also flew to Addis, and it’s likely that the conflicting requests of the two leaders influenced Abiy’s decision to choose a new president. 

Ethiopia is an ethnofederal state. Like in the United States, the different states have their own regional governments that ultimately answer to the federal government. These states have their own elections for regional leadership separate from federal elections. Unlike the United States, the states are divided on ethnic lines. The Tigray region governs the Tigray people, one of the major ethnic groups alongside the Amhara and Oromo. The ethnofederal model recognized the ethnic groups in Ethiopia, but it also has been responsible for increased fragmentation between and within the ethnic groups. 

Historically, the Tigray had substantial influence in the federal government. After Ethiopian forces overthrew the Derg communist regime in the early 1990s, the coalition that formed—the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)—allowed the TLPF to dominate national politics for nearly three decades. However, the dynamic shifted when Abiy came into power in 2018 and changed the EPRDF into the “Prosperity Party.” An Oromo himself, Abiy’s government resulted in a significant reduction in TLPF influence. Gérard Prunier, a former director of the French Center for Ethiopian Studies in Addis Ababa, told La Croix International, “He aims to further marginalize the Tigrayans, who once ruled Ethiopia but have been sidelined from power for the past decade.”

The change in government was one of the factors that led to the Tigrayan War in 2020. Experts say at least 600,000 died in the conflict, and over a million are still displaced today. The civil war damaged $22.7 billion worth of infrastructure and cost an estimated 26 percent of GDP, with agriculture being hit the hardest, in the first year alone; the total damage is still unknown. Although the war officially came to a close in 2022 with the Pretoria Peace Agreement, many stipulations of the agreement, including the complete disarmament of Tigrayans and other regional forces, have not been fulfilled, resulting in lingering unrest. Meanwhile, the interim government set up by that agreement expired on March 23. 

Tigray never fully recovered from the first civil war. Infrastructure was never rebuilt, and schools remain closed. The inflation rate of over 30 percent caused bank runs (mass hysteria and withdrawal of deposits similar to 1929 and 2008 crisis in the United States), soaring food prices, and long lines for fuel that have left the average Tigray without basic necessities. Tsedale Gebreselassie, who relies on food banks, told The New Humanitarian, “I can’t buy any food for myself because of the high prices. I have nothing.” Because of the war, the poverty rate rose from 27 to 45 percent, an estimated three million people falling into poverty.

The recent violence in Adigrat and Mekele has some experts worried that there will be another war. Professor of African Studies at Georgetown University Lahra Smith told The Caravel, “I do think there is a very real chance of renewed war […] in large part because of the brutality of the [Tigrayan] War itself, the involvement of Eritrea and other foreign actors in the Horn region and the wider Gulf states, and split that weaknesses of the Pretoria Agreement in 2022 that was intended to end the [Tigrayan] War.” Meanwhile, other experts say the alarm is being raised too early. Former Editor-in-Chief of the American Political Science Review and Comparative Politics Professor at University of North Texas John Ishiyama told The Caravel, “I doubt that a rekindling of a war is likely. To me, the conflict is between two contenders to lead the TPLF—the more militant old guard led by Debretsion and a more moderate, more technocratic element associated with Getachew. […] I do not think there is an appetite [in the government] to restart the conflict in Tigray for the Abiy Regime. They have enough to handle with the Fano insurgency in the Amhara region.” 

There are additional fears of conflict with neighboring Eritrea. The country had originally lent military support in the fight against the Derg, but its forces never completely left Ethiopia after that. Recent maritime disagreements over rights in the Red Sea and the contested region of Badme have further worsened relations. Getachew has accused Eritrea of meeting with Debretsion, saying, “They would benefit from the turmoil.” Both sides have denied these claims. 

Dr. Ishiyama reflects, “Eritrea is a wild card. […] I do not think they want to be drawn into a war but are willing to see the conflict continue to weaken their potential adversaries.” Dr. Smith disagreed, “Eritrea is a huge instigator of conflict and a bad actor in all of this, but Ethiopia used them as a player in the 2020-2022 Tigray War, and then was wrong to assume that they would not expect to continue to try to play a role as spoiler along that border.” 

Abiy has invited Tigrayans to email suggestions for the new president, although he will ultimately decide who will lead the region. He explained this decision as an attempt to keep peace in the region between the rival factions. Critics worry about the larger implications of the federal government choosing regional leaders, pointing out that the decision is a massive expansion of federal power and a possible threat to the current ethnofederal system.