A Matter of Perspective: China’s Revised Coal Consumption Statistics

Data on Chinese statistics vary from questionable at best and downright dubious at worst, and are subject to constant revision. China’s historical coal consumption statistics released this past month are no exception. On November 4th, the New York Times reported that China had upwardly revised its historical coal consumption between the years 2000 and 2013 by 17%. The article also predicts that this revelation would pose a challenge to negotiators trying to reach a comprehensive climate agreement at the COP21 conference in Paris this December. But as alarming as this report sounds, these revisions may not have as negative of an impact due to the extensive measures that China has already taken to fight CO2 emissions both through domestic reforms and international agreements.

Based on the new revision released in China’s annual Energy Statistical Yearbook, the country consumed about 600 million more tons of coal in 2012 than previously recorded. Extrapolating from this data, senior researcher at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Jan Ivan Korsbakken claimed that China had released about 900 million more metric tons of CO2 between 2011 and 2013. These figures demonstrate that China’s negative contribution to global warming was even bigger than estimated, and the country seems to be slipping further away than ever from its emission goals.

However, this coal consumption revision is not surprising to many specialists involved in monitoring China’s emissions and contribution to climate change. Historically, China revises its coal consumption statistics every four years in order to incorporate new data from its economic censuses. Although the previous revisions have not been as high as 17%, Chinese revisions to its official statistics are not a new phenomenon. Signs of the most recent revision emerged this September in a brief by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), citing preliminary upward revisions of coal consumption by 14%.

The economic and political realities in China also demonstrate that the 17% upward revision is not as grave as it sounds. According to the EIA, China’s consumption of coal has tapered off in recent years, growing about 1% in 2013 and remaining flat in 2014. This is largely credited to a slowing manufacturing sector and industry restructuring that led to more efficient energy use. As China continues its efforts to shift towards a more service-based economy, coal consumption is expected to fall further.

In terms of policy, China and the U.S., the two biggest emitters of CO2 in the world, deepened their cooperation against climate change in September. Building on the bilateral agreement that the two countries reached in November 2014, China redoubled its efforts to curb its emissions by pledging to lower carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 60% from the 2005 level by 2030. The most significant commitment was the announcement of a national cap-and-trade emissions system for China, after successful pilot tests in 7 different provinces. These policies show that China recognizes the danger of its rampant emissions, and is already taking steps to mitigate further contributions to global warming.

China may have issues with data transparency, but the upward revisions on coal consumption must be weighed against both historical precedents and the concrete commitments that China has taken against climate change. As the COP21 conference kicks off in Paris next week, perhaps the cooperation between the U.S. and China will be just enough to inject a new momentum into the push to finalize an agreement on curbing climate change.