A New Cold War: Syria as the Latest Battleground for Old Tensions

The Cold War ended in 1991, but developments in the Syrian Civil War have sparked renewed tensions between Russia and the West. In early September, media outlets reported that Russia had stationed 200 naval infantry soldiers and placed at least seven battle tanks, temporary housing units, a portable air traffic control station, and components for an air defense system at an airfield south of Latakia in northwest Syria. Latakia is currently controlled by the Syrian regime, but rebels control nearby regions.

Two weeks later, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his country would begin airstrikes in Syria to combat the group known as the Islamic State (IS). Russia gave U.S. forces just an hour’s notice before launching the first strikes and requesting that all U.S. forces and aircraft be removed from the targeted area.

While launching unilateral airstrikes in Syria represents a clear Russian challenge to U.S. leadership, Russia’s intervention may also present another layer of complexity. Homs and Hama, the first cities targeted by Russian airstrikes, are not IS strongholds and are located in a region generally considered to be controlled by a combination of the Syrian regime and the rebel opposition.

While there is little reason to doubt that Putin opposes IS and wishes to eliminate it as part of his foreign policy platform, his rationale seems distinct from that of the United States and its Western allies. The choice to focus initial airstrikes on the U.S.-backed rebels may indicate that Putin sees the Syrian conflict as an opportunity to assert Russia’s prominence in international affairs and particularly in the Middle East while propping up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government, a critical regional ally.

Furthermore, Russia and the West have radically divergent imagined outcomes. President Obama maintains that the Syrian Civil War cannot end with Assad in office. Russia, on the other hand, seems committed to retaining Assad (and therefore Syria) as an ally in the Middle East. As President Obama implies, even if the United States saw Assad in a neutral light, his continued presence will likely mean a continuation of the civil war unless Russia can neutralize the rebel forces.

Tensions have only escalated further after Turkey, a member of NATO, shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter jet after it neglected to heed warnings to leave Turkish airspace. Putin called the act,which resulted in the death of a Russian pilot, “a stab in the back” and subsequently issued economic sanctions against Turkey. NATO has expressed its full support for Turkey and affirmed its right to defend its airspace as well as to refuse an apology to Russia. The situation in Syria involves the clash of important U.S. and Russian interests with respect to the conflict itself, the wider Middle East, and global power dynamics. If Russia and the West cannot work together to establish a common strategy for defeating their common enemy in IS despite their opposing visions for Syria’s future, conflict may be unavoidable.