Ahmadinejad Announces He Will Not Run for Iranian Presidency
Former president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, officially announced on September 27 that he will not run against current president Hassan Rouhani in the upcoming elections of 2017. His declaration came a day after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s warning that “it is not in the interest of the country for him to run” became public. Past political conflicts between the Supreme Leader and Ahmadinejad during a polarizing election have now proven to disqualify him.Ahmadinejad was the notorious president of Iran from 2005 to 2013, a controversial figure who espoused an anti-Western rhetoric and was blamed for immense corruption during his presidency. As a largely unknown political outsider at the time, he won with a populist approach and conservative backing. However, by the end of his second term, he had become a divisive figure even within his own country and tensions between him and the Supreme Leader Khamenei had become apparent.
Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
In the spring of 2016, Ahmadinejad began to campaign against incumbent President Rouhani, attacking his policies, including the Iranian nuclear deal, and garnering support by condemning Western figures. Ahmadinejad was eligible for re-election, and it was clear he planned to challenge Rouhani for his seat. In order for him to officially run, Ahmadinejad would have to be approved by the Guardian Council, a group of Islamic clerics and lawyers ostensibly independent of the Supreme Leader. In reality, Khamenei’s words carry political power and effectively bar him from approval.
On September 26, Iranian media reported on the conversation between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, which was leaked by Khamenei’s office after Ahmadinejad continued to campaign in defiance of this private discussion. The Supreme Leader’s recommendation to cease political operations in the name of national unity has completely halted Ahmadinejad’s political ambitions and demonstrated the Ayatollah’s powerful influence.
With the success of the Iranian nuclear deal in lifting many international sanctions, the bond between the conservatives and reformists that brought Rouhani to power has diminished; Rouhani’s main platform had been fixing the economy by lifting these sanctions, a point of agreement across the ideological spectrum. Without a mutual interest, diverging opinions have become much clearer. Political divisions are potentially destabilizing for the government, a possibility that Khamenei must try to avoid.
Although Khamenei has shown ambivalence and even skepticism towards the nuclear deal negotiations that Rouhani conducted, his nonintervention signals his silent approval of Rouhani. On the other hand, Khamenei and Ahmadinejad share a much more tense history; Ahmadinejad, toward the end of his second term, tried to assert his position above the clerics who wield strong theocratic power in Iran. Khamenei responded by arresting the former president’s allies, a sharp escalation of the disagreement begun after the 2009 elections. These elections were fraught with corruption, leading to the Green Revolution protests against Ahmadinejad which grew violent and intensified political discord in the country.
Iran’s Supreme Leader has interest in blocking Ahmadinejad from office to preserve unity by easing the path for a moderate like Rouhani. Stability ensures the status quo and the survival of the cleric-dominated regime. Not only does internal dissent challenge traditional authority, but it weakens the country in the international mind, especially when facing heightened ideological opposition across the world. Identifying an enemy and mobilizing national support against a threat has historically been key to unifying Iran, but the rise of a controversial figure could overwhelm this strategy.
Ahmadinejad also faces opposition from much of the public, including his own conservative faction after his clash with the clerics. He would have tried to force the conservatives into voting for him by being the only viable opposition to Rouhani, who currently straddles both sides of the spectrum, unable to favor either direction without alienating much of his base. However, now it is unclear if Rouhani will face any substantial opposition in the upcoming campaign or if securing the nuclear deal will be enough to guarantee a moderate victory.