Alasania’s Dismissal: The Next Chapter in Georgia’s Democratic Growth?

 

November 5th shook the world with a wholly unexpected announcement: Defense Minister Irakli Alasania, Georgia’s most popular politician, was suddenly dismissed by Prime Minister Garibashvili.  Internationally known and respected for his success in bringing Georgia closer towards NATO membership, the much-beloved Defense Minister also serves as head of the Georgia-Free Democrats Party, which forms a significant part of the country’s six-party Georgian Dream coalition now holding an absolute majority in parliament.  In acts of solidarity with Mr. Alasania, Foreign Minister Panjikidze and Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Patriashvili resigned in protest of the dismissal.  A number of Alasania’s Georgia-Free Democrat deputies have also left the Georgian Dream coalition, putting the faction’s parliamentary majority at risk.

Alasania’s dismissal came after a series of investigations and arrests in the Ministry of Defense that took place last week, with a number of officials currently facing charges of corruption.  Alasania, who publicly upheld the innocence of his Ministry employees, was charged by Garibashvili for his inappropriate “politicization” of the issue, prompting the dismissal.  Many see this turn of events as the final catalyst for an eruption of tensions that have long been simmering within the Georgian Dream coalition, an organization that was originally created in 2012 by former Prime Minister Ivanishvili to oust then-President Saakashvili.  Despite his cooperation with Georgian Dream, however, Alasania has traditionally resisted full conformity to Ivanishvili’s political faction.  As of late, he has taken special issue with the moderately pro-Russian stance of Ivanishvili’s protégé, Prime Minister Garibashvili.  Alasania, who currently holds a 60% popularity rating, decried the government investigations into the Defense Ministry as “politically motivated” and designed to discredit him.

The recent turn of events, putting some of Georgia’s most vocal pro-Western politicians out of power, has raised much fear and speculation regarding how Georgia’s path toward joining NATO and the EU will be affected.  A number of politicians, including Alasania himself, have criticized government actions as “a campaign against the main driving force of Euro-Atlantic aspirations.”  The US State Department also issued a worried statement hours after Alasania’s dismissal, calling on the country’s leaders to “focus on securing Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic future.”

Garibashvili and other government officials have called these allegations baseless, assuring foreign and domestic audiences that Georgia remains firmly on the path of European integration.  While Garibashvili’s government may have a more moderate Western tilt than Alasania and his compatriots, it is clear that overwhelming public opinion in Georgia in support of European integration would never allow for a Yanukovich-style capitulation from the country’s current path.  And, even without the participation of Alasania’s Georgia-Free Democratic Party, Georgian Dream still contains a number of strongly Western-leaning politicians - notably the Republicans led by parliament speaker David Usupashvili.  With all this in mind, Georgia’s conviction to join the EU and NATO appears largely untouched.

With aspirations for European integration still safe from harm, it seems that Alasania’s dismissal may in fact lead to a strengthening of Georgia’s democracy.  Political analyst David Kakabadze describes the Georgian Dream coalition as a “time bomb waiting to explode” – a largely artificial entity that has existed primarily as a vessel to enact the political dictates of billionaire Ivanishvili.  Since his resignation from the post of Prime Minister in 2013, Ivanishvili is still widely believed to pull most of the political strings in Georgia, with his long list of protégés including current PM Garibashvili and President Margvelashvili.  The shakeup of the current ruling coalition, therefore, constitutes a major step away from the status quo of personality politics that has threatened to stagnate Georgia’s democratic growth.

Finding its parliamentary majority threatened, Georgia Dream must now search for new allies if it wants to maintain control.  This, writes Kakabadze, “means defining some core values and trying to attract independent deputies to their standard.”  It also means that the door has been opened for a new, more powerful opposition bloc to form.  If Alasania and his Georgia Free Democrats strike a deal with the pro-Western United National Movement, for example, it could pose a serious challenge to Georgia Dream’s hold on power.  While it is still early to speculate, it is clear that these events have turned the page to the next chapter of Georgia’s democratic evolution.  The status quo has been broken, and a new phoenix of possibility is rising from the ashes.