Amid Increasing International Criticism, North Korea Seeks to Develop Tumen River

In January 2015, the North Korean government released a proposal by its major think tank, the North Korean Academy of Social Sciences, discussing plans to restart development projects in the Tumen River region as part of the Greater Tumen Initiative. The river serves as North Korea’s northern border with Russia and China, thus making it strategically important. Developing the region industrially would help North Korea in two major ways: it would improve domestic conditions by generating employment and boosting regional tourism, and improve relations with other East Asian countries, especially Russia, China, and South Korea.

The idea behind the initiative originated in the 1990’s. Backed by the United Nations Development Program, it was seen as a way to strengthen ties between North and South Korea as well as Russia, China, and Mongolia, the other participating countries. However, very little progress was made over the course of the decade that followed. The North Korean government’s erratic behavior created a lack of trust with potential investors, who were reluctant to risk investing in a region riddled with tensions and in a non-transparent, untrustworthy government. Additionally, North Korea’s relationship with the other members deteriorated for other reasons, including North Korea’s human rights abuses and continued nuclear program. Consequently, this combination of factors caused the project to come to a standstill, and the recent proposal was the first major development in over a decade.

The revived development project would revolve mainly around oil and transportation, and aims to enhance ties with North Korea’s neighbors as well as domestic conditions. The recent proposal mentions a potential oil and natural gas pipeline that could be constructed to transport oil between North and South Korea, which would lead to increased inter-Korean trade and cooperation. Additionally,  the report proposes a Trans-Siberian railroad that would pass through North Korea and create a tourist hub out of the Tumen River region, economically benefiting the government. In addition, despite the fact that officials are almost certain to appropriate most of the benefits, locals on the ground might still benefit through exposure to more foreigners passing through the region.

But the Tumen initiative still faces a number of challenges. First, although exposure to foreigners might seem positive to the rest of the world, the North Korean government disagrees, and views development as a security threat. Additionally, the release of the statement comes at a time when North Korea has its back against the wall. The government’s relations with its sole major ally - China - have grown increasingly tense in recent months, and the country has faced increased criticism for its long-standing human rights abuses, its numerous political purges and its nuclear program. Without China and its economic assistance, North Korea would find it even more difficult to find investors to implement development projects. Already crippled by international sanctions, the government was just hit with more by the United States over its alleged cyber attack on Sony. The economic conditions are little to no more favorable for investors than they were back in the 1990’s, which will make it difficult to start the development process near the Tumen River.

In addition, the region itself faces its own difficulty because of its nature as a border between the economically prosperous China and undeveloped North Korea. In winter, when the river freezes over, it offers a relatively easy path out of the country and so is the most commonly used route for defection. Since the North Korean government places a high premium on controlling the riverbanks, it might choose to limit development. In addition, recent murders on the Chinese side of the border allegedly committed by a North Korean defector will also make China wary of activity around the river, and have strained ties between the two governments.

Overall, the project is ambitious, especially given North Korea’s current ties with investors and its neighbors. However, the most significant part might be that the government is even considering cooperating with other nations and improving its relations with South Korea. Although it seems like the move was made more out of desperation to improve both its economy and its ties in the region, it still shows a shift in North Korea’s stance and an understanding that complete isolation will only result in more difficulties.