Anything But Jonathan: the Major Opposition Constituencies in Nigeria’s Elections

In a decision that sparked outcry and criticism by many, Nigeria’s election council, the INEC, announced this past week that it would delay the country’s elections from February 14 until March at the earliest. This ruling stems from the ongoing havoc wrecked by the Boko Haram militant group in the northeast region. The postponement gives even more time for the presidential candidates to continue to reach out to potential voters. This year’s elections have been deemed as “too close to call”, with the two main contenders, incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and challenger Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressive’s Congress (APC), running neck and neck. Such a tight election may come as a surprise, given that President Jonathan has largely failed to curb corruption and stop the armed insurrection within his borders. However, main opposition, Buhari, has his own set of issues: he was formerly Nigeria’s military ruler in the 1980s, ascended through a coup only to have been overthrown following a year of unsuccessful rule. Despite these setbacks, the two candidates have emerged as the top contenders for the second consecutive election. While Buhari lost handedly in 2011, this time appears to be different. His supporters come from an odd mix of groups; from those who will vote for him on the basis of clan affiliations, to those who will vote for him simply to have anyone but President Jonathan. This reflects the strange situation of Nigeria’s politics, stemming from its internal divisions and fledgling political institutions.

The legacy of Nigeria’s colonial past continues to be a major glaring aspect of its elections thus far. As a result of the borders drawn by its British colonizers, Nigeria is incredibly diverse, with over 500 indigenous languages. Tribal, ethnic and religious affiliations have played a major role in determining votes. Consequently, Nigeria’s political system has largely been structured around these affiliations. Presidential preferences over the past few elections have been along a north-south line, reflecting the Muslim-Christian composition of the country. This year’s election is no different: Jonathan is a Christian of the Ijaw minority group in the south and Buhari is a Muslim of the Fulani ethnicity in the north. Buhari himself has run three times before, capturing the northern portion of the country without fail each time. Virtually all political parties - with the possible exception of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which has more of a national appeal - are regionally or ethnically based. This divide is a major roadblock to national unity, with voters tending to choose candidates based on their demographics rather than their actual competency.

A number of Nigerians have decided to vote not by clan affiliations, but by the mere fact that they would rather have any president other than Goodluck Jonathan due to his inability move the country forward. This “Anything But Jonathan” approach drew widespread attention when former president Olusegun Obasanjo, a PDP member himself, declared his support for the opposing party’s candidate, Buhari. This reflects a general lack of trust in Jonathan’s ability to solve Nigeria’s problems, even though his opponent, Buhari, had his own unsuccessful tenure as the head of Nigeria over 30 years ago. Recently, Lola Shoneyin, a Nigerian novelist and poet, explained why she supported Buhari, despite the fact that his regime jailed her father during her childhood. Her argument is simple: “[Buhari]  talks about his three main priorities: unemployment, insecurity and education [...] For some Nigerians, he might not be an ideal candidate; but for many more, people want anything but Jonathan.” This lesser of two evils situation has been a major factor for some in their voting decisions.

With the election’s postponement, it seems that this dramatic saga might continue for at least another six weeks. But, regardless of who wins, there will remain questions left unanswered about Nigeria’s long-term stability. With a general lack of faith in governing institutions -- only 29% of polled Nigerians said they trusted their government -- and ongoing internal divisions, Nigerians will keep asking themselves whether their country can carry the torch for Africa.