Brazil Takes to the Polls

Brazil underwent its first round of general elections on October 5th, 2014. The presidential race proved anything but predictable as dramatic changes in polls leading up to the voting date made the race one to keep an eye on. As expected, no candidate was able to win the absolute majority necessary to secure the presidency. Under the two-round system in Brazil, with no candidate able to garner more than 50 percent of the votes, another round of elections is set to take place on October 26th in the form of a

runoff between the two candidates with the highest number of votes from the first round: Dilma Rouseff and Aécio Neves.

Incumbent President Dilma Rouseff of the Workers Party (PT) ran for re-election against 11 other candidates. Her main competition came from Marina Silva of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) and Minas Gerais Senator Aécio Neves of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB). As the voting date drew closer, a presidential race that initially seemed to be a sure re-election of incumbent Dilma Rouseff became harder and harder to call as her competition gained ground. In the end, Rousseff was able to comfortably secure her spot in the second round runoffs with 41.6 percent of the votes. Neves, who beat out fellow contender Silva with 33.5 percent of the votes, will be joining Rouseff in these runoffs.

Rouseff, running with the center-left electoral coalition With the Strength of the People, had been creating an image of herself as the candidate best equipped to make changes, reminding poorer Brazilians of the anti-poverty gains of the last decade. Rouseff served as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s chief of staff before succeeding him and becoming Brazil’s

first female president in 2011. Despite the grim economic numbers and criticism for the large spending campaign for this past summer’s World Cup, unemployment remained at historic lows and a rise in living standards had taken place during Rousseff’s term in office thanks to popular transfer programs such as the "bolsa familia," helping Rousseff win widespread support among the poor and middle-class voters in Brazil. Rousseff saw a surge in support after a slew of negative TV and radio ads ran against her main opponent Marina Silva, whom Rousseff branded as an inexperienced leader who was “too close to the banks” and exhibited inconsistent behavior. In the last week before the first round of elections, polls showed Rousseff clawing her way back to the top of the polls to become the clear favorite, making it unsurprising that she has made it to the second round to face off against Neves.

Candidate Marina Silva, the former environmental minister under President Lula, had been questioned about keeping the government’s social welfare programs, and her once relatively large lead in the polls saw a drop following Rousseff’s campaigning attacks late in the game. Silva was originally the vice presidential candidate on the Socialist ticket, but the unexpected death of the presidential candidate Eduardo Campos in a plane crash led the Socialist Party to select Silva as the Party’s candidate for the presidency. After only a few weeks of campaigning, Silva managed to double her predecessor's points in the polls.

Silva is Afro-Brazilian and was born in an Amazonian state to a family of rubber tappers. Voters sympathized with Silva and saw an atypical candidate with humble beginnings and corruption-free credentials. With a diverse electoral base ranging from investment bankers to anti-establishment radicals and environmentalists, Silva became the candidate that many saw as having the best chance of ending the governing coalition's almost 12-year reign in office. Initially surging forward in the polls and displacing Aécio Neves in the polls for second place, Silva lost ground in the days leading up to the election. In the end, with a total of only 21.3 percent of the votes, Silva did not make it into the second round runoffs.

Neves, part of the centrist coalition Brazil Can Do More, was the most conservative of the three and wanted to bolster the private sector to bring in foreign investments. He was seen as the most market-friendly of the candidates.  All the major candidates had vowed to relaunch Brazil's stalled economy, and Neves proposed streamlining the Brazilian government, limiting public spending and simplifying the tax code. Both Silva and Neves were vowing reforms that economists say are necessary to put the economy back on track.

Amid the uncertainty present in Brazil at this moment, one thing is clear: Brazilians want change, and they need a leader that will be able to create that change by combatting corruption and competently managing the country’s public investments. Long regarded as a regional leader and a global force to be reckoned with, Brazil is now subject to different visions with regard to its future path. Recent polls predict Rousseff winning in the upcoming runoff. If the incumbent does manage to stay in office for another four years, many fear that Brazil will not be able to undergo the scale of change that it needs. Rousseff promised to continue expanding social programs and ensuring strong state involvement in the economy as opposed to the centrist economic approaches promised by both Silva and Neves. Much remains to be seen as Brazil looks towards the election runoff set to take place on October 26th.