Catalan Independence Referendum: Results

Separatists advocating for Catalonia’s independence from Spain have declared themselves victorious following a recent parliamentary election in Spain’s northeastern state. The election, held on Sunday, September 27, was seen as an opportunity for Catalan separatists to achieve greater representation in their regional government and subsequently to advocate for independence in the coming months. Two of the major secessionist parties in Catalonia, Together for Yes and the smaller leftist Popular Unit Candidacy party (CUP), emerged victorious in this sense. Official election results show the two parties as having won 62 and 10 seats of the available 135 in parliament respectively. Following the election, Artur Mas, the Catalan regional government premier, announced that “this vote will bring economic prosperity, social justice, solidarity, hope, dignity, and freedom” and voiced his intent to formally declare Catalonia’s independence from Spain within the next 18 months.

The debate regarding Catalonia’s desire to secede from Spain is not new. It began in 2012 over a financial dispute regarding Catalonia’s tax contribution to poorer parts of Spain. Tensions rose in November 2014 when an unofficial vote indicated that 80% of the Catalan population favored independence. Hopes for independence are high following Sunday’s election, though an official declaration does remain far off in the distance.

Spain’s constitution prohibits any region from seceding, and Madrid refuses to consider Sunday’s elections as a legitimate step toward secession. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s center-right government has opposed any attempt to hold a referendum in Catalonia. Rajoy’s spokesperson confirmed that “[Rajoy’s Popular Party] will continue to guarantee legality and the unity of Spain.” Meanwhile, Mas appears set on proceeding with his secessionist plans despite their illegality.

Since Catalonia is Spain’s second most populous region, this separatist victory could result in dramatic changes. Economically, Spain relies on Catalonia as a net contributor for its tax system to finance the poorer regions. Furthermore, Catalonia accounts for nearly 20 percent of the country’s GDP. Spain is currently on its way out of a recession, and many are concerned that Catalonia’s independence would negatively affect European financial markets.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, UK Prime Minister David Cameron, and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker have all cautioned that Catalonia would no longer be part of the European Union if it chose to proceed with the independence movement. Additionally, some Catalans have voiced their preference to remain part of Spain, provided that Catalonia receives tax benefits and regulations to protect its language and culture. Analysts believe that the results of Sunday’s election will compel Spanish and Catalan authorities to openly discuss current tensions between the two regions.