China and Pakistan Solidify “Iron Brotherhood,” but Remain Wary of Regional Instability

On February 12th and 13th, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi travelled to Pakistan’s capital Islamabad to follow up on last year’s Sino-Pakistani summit. The two neighbors aim to strengthen their cooperation, with special regard to economic and security-related issues. During his visit, Wang met with Pakistan’s President Mamnoon Hussain, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Army Chief General Raheel Sharif. Both sides stressed the importance of Sino-Pakistani relations: Wang called their friendship “rock-firm,” and Prime Minister Sharif qualified it as an “all-weather strategic partnership.” With the promise a state visit to Pakistan by Xi Jinping, the two nations reemphasized their commitment to mutual support.

Although China and Pakistan have engaged in diplomatic relations since 1951, their relationship experienced a major revival in February 2014 when Xi and Hussain met in China as part of Hussain’s first trip abroad since assuming office. After signing the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Good-Neighborly Relations in 2005, they reaffirmed their ties and declared that 2015 would be the “China-Pakistan Year of Friendly Exchanges” in the joint statement released at the end of their meeting. The statement also reaffirmed Pakistan’s support for the one-China policy as well as China’s commitment to backing counter-terrorism operations in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and detailed the economic and security-related projects set to begin in 2015.

Economic endeavors are a key component of China’s partnership with Pakistan, as they are in most of China’s relations with foreign countries. Development of Pakistan’s infrastructure has been cited as a major priority in their economic cooperation, as Pakistan’s power grid is in dire need of improvement. To this end, China has committed to providing Pakistan with six new nuclear reactors despite international criticism that it may be violating the terms of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the main international agreement on limiting the spread of nuclear energy. In addition, the two nations devoted their energies to the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in order to strengthen China’s efforts to develop a modern-day Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road. CPEC includes various projects to connect Pakistan’s Gwadar Port to China’s Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, which borders Pakistan, using roads, railroads, and oil and gas pipelines. But China’s ambitions in Gwadar, a major strategic point of entry to the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, may be threatened by local unrest. Gwadar is one of Pakistan’s poorest cities, and residents have expressed a desire to improve local conditions before exploiting the city as a means to national development.

Another potential threat to these economic agreements comes from instability both in Pakistan and in China’s own Xinjiang province. It is not coincidental that in conjunction with the announcement of these major economic projects China also reiterated its commitment to the region’s security. At the same time as Wang Yi was visiting Pakistan, Chinese officials were also participating in the China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Trilateral Strategic Dialogue in Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital. Pakistan has suffered from the spillover of the Taliban into its own borders, which makes Afghan stability a key concern. In addition, China is concerned with the stability of the Xinjiang province, which has suffered from multiple terrorist attacks, including two in 2014 in its capital Urumqi. These attacks are widely considered to have been carried out by the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), a terrorist organization that operates in parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Thus, China’s security agreements with Pakistan are necessary in order to maintain the economic and political friendship officials speak of so fondly.

Despite regional instability, China and Pakistan’s relationship will flourish in the coming months as China concretizes its nuclear and infrastructure projects in Pakistan. Overall, China’s efforts in Pakistan are reflective of its desire to take on a larger economic and political role in today’s world, especially when regarded in combination with China’s ever-growing partnerships with Africa and more recently Latin America and South Asia. But China’s relationship with Pakistan faces a unique challenge: India, a country with which Pakistan has had a turbulent relationship since the inception of both countries in 1947 following the collapse of British India. In early February Chinese and Indian officials also met to discuss their own relations. China’s relations with both countries and wider regional stability could suffer if China tries to play both sides to its own advantage and ends up disrupting their fragile peace, so the government will have to tread lightly so as not to face more criticism from Asian countries.