China and Vietnam Resolve Differences, Temporary Peace or Permanent Change?

South_China_Sea_map On October 17th, 2014, China and Vietnam were apparently able to reach an agreement on developing bilateral military relations, especially in regard to their maritime disputes. In a meeting between the Chinese Defense Minister Chang Wanquan and the Vietnamese Defense Minister Phung Quang Thanh in Beijing, both sides agreed to increase cooperation and military exchanges between the two countries. Both ministers advocated for the development of peace and stability in disputed maritime regions, in addition to enhancing political trust. This development signifies a temporary victory for China in regard to its strategic interests.

Maritime disputes between China and Vietnam have been going over on for centuries. Since the Qing Dynasty, both countries have laid claim to the Paracel Islands, a chain of archipelago islands located in the South China Sea. In the past, control over the islands was largely of symbolic importance, and had little practical consequence. But, now in an increasingly energy scarce world, whoever controls the islands will have access to important natural resources. Recent Chinese expeditions have discovered vast maritime oil reserves near these disputed islands, thus raising the stakes of ownership.

In the past several months, tensions have steadily increased between China and Vietnam regarding the South China Sea and the territories that China claimed. Though obviously both countries have had a longstanding disagreement over sovereignty, recent tensions can largely be traced back to the location of a Chinese oil rig. This past summer, China installed an oil rig near the Paracel Islands, in waters that were also claimed by Vietnam. Afterwards, a Vietnamese fishing boat collided with a Chinese vessel. When the video of the incident was released, the ensuing political backlash sparked vicious riots in Vietnam, targeting mostly Chinese nationals. Although China has since dismantled the oil rig and relocated it farther away, there is still significant anti-Chinese sentiment among the Vietnamese people. Furthermore, these protests severely damaged the relationship between these two countries. In the aftermath, both countries blamed each other for being responsible for the wrongdoing.

The recent China-Vietnam agreement appears to have closed this chapter and put this crisis to rest. Significantly, China has also appeared to resolve this problem without interference from the United States. It is noteworthy that China has been able to prevent Vietnam from bringing the U.S. into its affairs, by utilizing bilateral instead of multilateral talks. More importantly, this move affords China more flexibility in dealing with its neighboring countries and prevents the U.S. from asserting its own influence in the region. While the exact terms of the agreement have not been released, one can presume that China was able to cut a deal that was amenable to both parties. From China’s perspective, this is a double victory - it has kept the U.S. out of its sphere of influence, and illustrated its ability to peacefully resolve crises.

However, this victory may only be a temporary one. In an unprecedented move, the U.S. recently lifted its forty-year arms embargo on Vietnam. Though weapons may only be given to Vietnam if they have implications for maritime security, it is unlikely that this is a coincidence, given the timing of the oil rig incident. This move can be read in two ways. First, the Obama administration has not abandoned its much-vaunted “pivot” to Asia policy. Second, the lifting of weapon sales shows that the U.S. wants to continue to exert its influence among Asian countries, and buffer other states to balance against China.

This recent move by the U.S. does not bode well for China, who will undoubtedly view this renewed military trade as another move in geopolitical encirclement. Already, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines have significant military ties with the U.S. The inclusion of Vietnam in that agreement will mean that much of China’s territorial disputes will be with American-backed or allied countries.

As a result, China may have moved to resolve its dispute with Vietnam in order to prevent further American actions. By cutting a deal, China could prevent the sale of additional military weapons to Vietnam, which would help in securing China’s claims in its maritime disputes and bolstering its negotiating position. Of course, nobody knows what concessions or side payments China may have been forced to make in order to secure such an agreement. In any case, it is clear that the lifting of the U.S. arms embargo on Vietnam has had a clear impact on accelerating China’s move to a peaceful resolution and dampening its bellicosity.There is hope, then, for small countries to hold out against the behemoth that is rising China.