Effectiveness of the “One Couple, Two Children” Reform Uncertain

The Communist Party of China Committee recently announced its new “one couple, two children” policy, replacing the “one child” policy from 1980. The “one child” policy was a population control that permitted only one child per couple in order to slow population growth. Under the new policy, all couples, regardless of the region of their residence, can have up to two children.

The purpose of the policy is to balance the age and the gender distribution of the population. Thirty-five years of the “one child” policy and an aging population resulted in a demographic imbalance and labor shortage. These demographic factors slowed China’s economic growth, a top concern of the Chinese government.

Furthermore, due to traditional preference for boys over girls, many Chinese couples have to give aborted or abandoned female infants in favor of having male children. This trend raises not only moral questions but also concerns about the total Chinese birth rate in China due to the declining number of girls and women.

Many experts also say that the “universal two children” policy reduces a family’s risk of losing an heir. According to Professor Howard Spendelow of the Georgetown University History Department, the “one child” policy came under renewed criticism when many parents lost their only child in the Sichuan Earthquake in 2008. This incident not only left the parents with emotional trauma from losing their only child but also created insecurity about their future in a country where children are expected to take care of their aging parents.

However, most experts do not anticipate a baby boom, which is Chinese government’s principal goal for the revision. As the living expenses in the urban areas rise, many young couples prefer to have only one child because of the economic burden of raising multiple children. By the time couples reach economic stability, many women are past their peak fertility..

Furthermore, in the 2000s, China loosened the “one child” policy and allowed two children if either of the parents was an only child. People born after 1980, the year the “one child” policy was imposed, had already benefited from this earlier revision.

Many experts expect the new policy to be more applicable to couples born after 1970 who might have already passed the fertility period. Therefore, the new policy is not likely to trigger a population boom to the extent that it balances the population age structure.

The International Monetary Fund argues that the economic problems due to an aging population can be better solved through encouraging more female and senior employment.

Chen Youhua, a Demographics Study expert, echoed this view. According to Chen, increasing paid maternity leave, government sponsored child caring facilities, and state financial assistance for child-rearing would do more to increase the birth rate than the “one couple, two children” policy.