Elections Set in the DRC, but What’s Next?

Much to the relief of the international community, election officials in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) decided to establish November 27th as the date for next year’s presidential elections. Plans for a national census, which opposition leaders accused the government of using to extend President Joseph Kabila’s hold on power, were scrapped. This announcement adds significant clarity to the future of DRC’s fragile political environment. Because President Kabila is currently constitutionally barred from running for a third term, there is now a greater likelihood that his 14-year reign will come to an end. The question of who exactly will fill his shoes, however, is still unclear.

Kabila rose to power in 2001 when Congo’s first President Laurent-Désiré Kabila, his father, was assassinated. At just 29 years-old, he was tasked with keeping the world’s 11th largest country by area intact as multiple rebel groups were tearing it apart. Kabila helped to oversee the DRC’s peace process following negotiations in 2002, and became the first freely elected leader in the country through the 2006 elections. Although he was re-elected in 2011, critics have argued that these elections were plagued by vote-rigging.

Fears that Kabila could extend his hold on power grew further in January, when the senate passed a law that would require a census to be held before next year’s elections. Because delays would be likely when surveying a country that is two-thirds the size of Western Europe, Kabila could have potentially extended his rule past 2016 while the surveys were taking place. Outrage over this possibility led to massive protests in the capital Kinshasa last month. Dozens were killed as protesters, many students, clashed with police. Following four days of chaos, the senate decided to amend its electoral bill to remove the stipulation that the census be held before the election.

The declaration by the electoral commission and Kabila’s affirmation that he would not seek reelection firmly establishes the notion that his days in office are numbered. From opposition politicians to rebel leaders to the Catholic Church, a variety of groups have demanded that Kabila respect the country’s constitution and step down from power. Kabila may have also been concerned that he could go the same way as that of Burkina Faso’s President Blaise Compaoré, who was ousted by protests last year when he tried extend his rule in office.

With Kabila out of the picture, what will the political field look like in 2016? The opposition, although united by its distaste for Kabila, does not seem to have a definite leader nor the capacity to take power. Etienne Tshisekedi of the the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDSP), who finished second behind Kabila in 2011, has isolated himself from the political race by continuously maintaining that he is the true victor of the previous election. Another well-known politician, the MLC party’s Jean-Pierre Bamba, the runner-up in 2006’s election, is still facing pending war crimes charges by the International Criminal Court. A rising star is Vital Kamerhe, whose breakaway UNC party finished third in 2011. The former  speaker of parliament has gained serious ground in expanding his network, especially by reaching out to politicians in the DRC’s conflict-ridden East that are dissatisfied with Kabila’s rule. However, without an agreement by the opposition parties on an official spokesperson, it may be difficult to form a strong coalition.

The most likely outcome in 2016 is that Kabila hand-picks a successor from his inner circle in the People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD). Aubin Minaku, who is currently the speaker of parliament, is a leading candidate. However, other notable figures, including the current Prime Minister, PPRD Secretary General and Minister of Communications, could potentially vie to become the next president.

At the very least, last week’s decision offers hope that the DRC’s fragile democracy could have a peaceful transition of power. This would be monumental for a country that suffered years of dictatorship under Mobutu Sese Seko and Kabila’s father, Laurent-Désiré. With the likelihood that Kabila will step down next year, fresh elections could give the central government the legitimacy it needs to better integrate the divided and anarchic country and regain its sovereignty.