French President François Hollande Will Not Seek Reelection

French President François Hollande announced he would not seek reelection in a live televised address from the Élysée Palace in Paris on December 1. Citing his inability to “gather sufficient support,” Hollande said that to ensure “the superior interest of the country,” he would not run for a new term in May 2017. This will be the first time in the history of the French Fifth Republic that an incumbent president will not compete for a second term. François Hollande first gained attention while serving from 1997 to 2008 as the First Secretary of the Socialist Party. He was subsequently elected president in May 2012 after defeating conservative and then-incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy. Although some of Hollande’s policies—such as extending the right of marriage to same sex couples, foreign interventions in Africa and the Middle East, and the handling of the January and November 2015 terrorist attacks—were generally popular, he has spent most of his term fighting declining popularity ratings.

After just a few months in office, Hollande faced criticism over his unpreparedness, apparent lack of authority, and unclear political stances. Moreover, he suffered dramatic popularity losses within his electoral base after he switched his economic policies towards a pro-business agenda centered on tax credits for companies and implemented a controversial reform of labor laws.

Hollande’s popularity eventually fell to single-digit levels, with a survey by Centre de Recherches Politiques de Sciences Po (CEVIPOF) and ISPOS indicating that only 4 percent of French people were satisfied with his policies. Opinion polls for the next presidential election were equally bleak, with Hollande appearing to have virtually no chance of reelection and finishing in fifth place, polling as low as 7 percent.

The opposition grew rapidly during his administration with a group of left-wing Socialist MPs known as frondeurs calling for a shift in economic policy or for Hollande’s own economy minister, Emmanuel Macron, to resign from the Cabinet to run for president on an independent and centrist ballot. France’s Prime Minister, Manuel Valls resigned on December 5 to run for presidential candidate as the Socialist’s nominee at the party’s primaries January 2017.

Still, Hollande’s decision came as a surprise to many. Uncertainty over Hollande’s next move has dominated French news for the past week, but few had predicted Hollande would not run. Just a few hours before his announcement, newspapers such as La Croix published articles analyzing Hollande’s possible strategies for the upcoming elections. Indeed, Hollande’s television address was announced to the press only a few hours before airing, without any hint on its content. Hollande told only his closest senior advisors and political allies of his decision a few hours before his speech, and most of France’s politicians and commentators discovered it live.

The announcement prompted strong reactions from many French politicians. François Fillon, the conservative candidate for the next presidential election, said that the president had “admitted with lucidity that his obvious failure stopped him going any further.” National Front (FN) leader Marine Le Pen said she was “not surprised” and linked Hollande’s announcement with the recent defeat of another former President, Nicolas Sarkozy, in the conservative party primaries. Hollande’s fellow Socialists praised his decision. Prime Minister Manuel Valls expressed that he had only “respect, fidelity and affection” for Hollande. Additionally, Former Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg called it a “courageous decision.”

Hollande’s Socialist Party will hold presidential primaries in January 2017, though expectations for that election are still very unclear. Hollande’s Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, announced his bid to enter the presidential race as a Socialist candidate. However, Valls will have to face numerous other candidates, including two of Hollande’s former ministers, Benoit Hamon (Education) and Arnaud Montebourg (Industry and Economy), who were fired from Hollande’s government after criticizing his economic policy in 2014.

Hollande also used his address to criticize conservative candidate François Fillon’s program as dangerous for the French “social model.” He warned against the rise of far-right parties and cited protectionism as the “greater danger” facing France. Hollande has yet to publicly endorsed a candidate for the next election.

According to a poll published on December 2 by Elabe, 82 percent of French citizens approve of Hollande’s decision not to run for a second term. He will stay in office until May 2017.