From Frozen to Simmering Conflict: Summer in Ukraine
The Russo-Ukrainian conflict has significantly scaled down since its heights in 2014 and 2015, but over the summer the conflict threatened to reignite as both parties military mobilizations and strong rhetoric rocked the region. An escalation first occurred in the Crimean Peninsula – annexed by the Russian Federation in March 2014 – when Russian authorities accused Ukraine of sending special forces into Crimea on August 10. In the disputed incident, the Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed that Ukrainian forces fired from across the border and killed an FSB employee.
Following the skirmish, Vladimir Putin remarked that the incident proved more international peace talks would be pointless. Ukraine called the accusations a Russian provocation. Soon after, on August 12, Ukrainian troops were placed on high alert in anticipation of another Russian move in Crimea and the Donbas region.
Outside of Crimea in Eastern Ukraine, summer has also brought the bloodiest period of the conflict since the Minsk II agreements were struck and the war winded down in September 2015. Since Minsk II, a fragile ceasefire has held sway in eastern Ukraine, though violations and incidents are common.
In Donetsk, which still suffers from shelling, eight civilians were killed and 65 wounded in July alone. According to the UN, heavy weaponry caused more than half of these deaths, despite its prohibition under the 2015 Minsk II agreement.
Starting August 25, Russian forces also began snap military drills on Russia’s western borders, just after Ukraine celebrated its 25th Independence Day. Though military drills are routine, they do put neighboring countries on edge, especially since Russia may use them to covertly transport personnel and equipment into eastern Ukraine.
News outlet Ukraine Today further reports that Russian assault troops landed in Crimea on August 27 as part of the same military exercises. Many experts don’t expect a war, but rather see this as diplomatic leverage. Alexander Baunov from the Carnegie Moscow Center says, “Russia is using the story about Crimean saboteurs as an ultimatum to its Western partners in the negotiations.”
Rising tensions in Ukraine and a strong Russian presence play into several external factors. First, the activity coincided with the Rio 2016 Olympics, feeding fears that Moscow might plot to invade its neighbor while eyes were turned toward international sports – as it did to initiate the 2008 Georgia War. An offensive push by Russo-Ukrainian separatists in August would have caught the international community by surprise.
Second, the demonstration was meant to unnerve Kiev as Ukraine prepared for its quarter-centennial Independence Day. It served as another reminder of the Kremlin’s power over Ukraine even in a post-Cold War era.
Russia’s Parliamentary elections are also coming up in September, and Putin’s United Russia is hoping for another victory. Standing strong against perceived aggression and for Russian integrity might play well with the electorate. According to the latest TASS poll, conducted in late August, United Russia is expected to win 43 percent of the vote.
The most shocking revelation of late, however, came from the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office. The office released intercepted phone calls dating from February 2014, just as former President Viktor Yanukovych’s administration was falling, from Kremlin aide Sergei Glazyev. These phone calls include discussions of plans for the March referendum in Crimea that led to the annexation and for of several uprisings in eastern Ukraine’s most russophone cities and regions.
Though Moscow has denied their legitimacy, they are the clearest evidence that not only did the Kremlin aide pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine, but that Russia concocted and initiated the 2014 uprisings in Ukraine via its network of supporters. Since then, nearly 10,000 lives have been lost and millions have been displaced as the tally continues to rise.