Growing Violence in Burundi - A Cause for Concern?

Several months of ongoing violence in Burundi have caused alarm among international observers. Since sitting President Pierre Nkurunziza won a controversial third term in July, the country has experienced a widespread government crackdown and a series of politically-motivated killings. According to the BBC, more than 240 people have been killed since April and 200,000 have fled to neighboring countries. The international community has become increasingly concerned. The U.N. has drawn up plans to send peacekeeping troops to Burundi and the U.S. has placed sanctions on several top-level Burundian officials, freezing their assets and restricting visas. Perhaps most alarming were warnings from various media outlets, such as the newspaper Libération, that the situation is reaching genocidal proportions.

The current level of violence is alarming. So far, the government has been unwilling to back down and continued to send troops into stronghold regions of opposition parties.

However, it is important to note that the situation in Burundi is quite different from the conditions that brought about other past African genocides, like the 1994 Rwandan genocide, despite similarities in the two nations’ ethnic breakdown. The armed forces in Burundi are now equally split between Hutu and Tutsi, while the government is just 60% Hutu.

In addition, violence has mostly been limited to Bujumbura, the capital, while rural areas have remained largely unaffected by these tensions. The killings launched by the government thus far have been geared toward individuals on the basis of political rather than not ethnic affiliation.

While the conflict is still problematic, it is not unlike the events in Central African Republic and Sudan. It is likely that recent events are a move by Nkurunziza to consolidate power and establish stronger control over the country.

It is still too early to tell whether wider conflict could break out, but policymakers and international actors should monitor the situation cautiously nonetheless.