John Kerry in Central Asia - Is the Great Game afoot again?

The Secretary of State’s first trip to Central Asia was announced on the 28th of October. Kerry will be visiting all of the former Soviet “-stans”: Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Not only is this Kerry’s first personal trip to the region, but also the first trip by a Secretary of State to all five republics in the same trip, underlining the importance of Kerry’s visit. Central Asia is the home of the silk road, the ancient arterial route between East and West. It was also previously the site of the “Great Game”, made famous by Rudyard Kipling’s novel “Kim”, which was a struggle for influence in the region between the Russian and British Empires throughout the 19th century. The republics in the area have maintained substantial independence since the collapse of the Soviet Union, however,  since 2001, and the invasion of Afghanistan, China, Russia, and the US are beginning a new “Great Game”.

The most important part of Kerry’s trip so far is the establishment of the “C5+1”, which is a group of the five Central Asian republics and the United States that allows “the Secretary and ministers to discuss regional and global opportunities and challenges.” This visit comes at a time when the United States is decreasing its military presence in the region, despite a delay in the withdrawal from Afghanistan .

The military transit base at Manas in Kyrgyzstan was emptied of US forces in July in 2014, following the refusal of the Kyrgyz government to extend the lease. Kyrgyzstan was previously the only country that has both Russian and American military bases. The closure of the base, and the reluctance of the Americans to open others, has worried Central Asian states that Washington’s interests in the region have ended.

At the same time, Russia has been seeking to increase its influence in the region. Alexander Bortnikov, the Head of Russia’s Federal Security Service, stated on 28 October that there was a risk of terrorist elements developing  in the region.

"Some (citizens of the five republics) have taken up the banner of Islamic State,” he said,  “which has led to a sharp increase in the threat of terrorists infiltrating Central Asia".

In January, a Tajik man was appointed as head of the capital of Islamic State and additionally requested that IS help fight “infidels” in Tajikistan.

These concerns have  been widely seen as a veiled attempt by Moscow to find a reason to reassert its role in the region. Jeffrey Mankoff, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow at Washington think tank CSIS implied that this was a new stage in the geopolitical struggle between the United States and Russia, and that any move by either side is likely to arouse the suspicions of the other.

"It’s about, if you will, a sort of neo-imperial vision for how the world works,” he said, “and it’s connected to Russia’s larger geopolitical ambitions.”

However, it was stressed by a state department official that this was not the case. They stated that, “The anxiety levels in the region are probably higher than the actual level of activity would warrant”.

At the same time China has also made an effort to assert some influence in the region. Beijing has pumped large amounts of funds into creating a new Silk Road, a project that it has termed the “Belt and Road” initiative. This is an attempt by the Chinese to gain influence in Central Asian nations by providing vast amounts of highly needed infrastructure in the hope that economic prosperity will bring about stability. Furthermore, Beijing hopes that better relations with Asian Muslim countries will have a positive impact on its own disgruntled Muslim population.

Kerry’s visit signals a new phase of American interest in the region. The security situation in Afghanistan is now being slowly revealed, due to lower numbers of ISAF troops, and this fleeting stability depends on America having significant enough influence in neighboring Central Asia. The visit is a means by the Secretary of State to consolidate American efforts in the Afghanistan by outstretching a hand to local governments combat the possible threat of Islamic extremism to the region and attempting to curb future Russian and Chinese influence.