Latest Negotiations Fail in Yemeni Civil War

Saleh al-Samad, political council chief of the Houthi rebel movement, offered a truce deal to the Yemeni government on September 25. The deal proposed to end Houthi combat operations on the border of Yemeni and Houthi-controlled territory in exchange for an end to Saudi Arabian air strikes and the lifting of a nearby sea blockade. The Saudi-led Arab coalition rebuffed the deal, countering that it would not support any agreement without Houthi militia disarmament. This failure of negotiations has frustrated many who have been involved in the conflict. A report published by the United Nations suggests that nearly 3 million people have been displaced and over 13 million rely on humanitarian assistance as a result. The politics of the civil war are complex, complete with shifting allegiances and regional power struggles. The stated goal of the Houthis, a Shi’ite group opposed to Yemen’s Sunni government, is to establish an inclusive democracy in Yemen. Their definition of “inclusivity” may seem subjective, given that The Atlantic reports that the group’s slogan is “Death to America, death to Israel, curse on the Jews, victory to Islam.”

In the early 2000s, the Houthis opposed president Ali Abdullah Saleh, the leader elected after the unification of North and South Yemen in 1990. Facing protests to his autocratic governance during the Arab Spring and criticism from international rights groups, Saleh stepped down in 2012. His vice president, Abd-Rabbuh Mansour Hadi, took control with backing from Saudi Arabia. T he Houthis, unsatisfied by this leadership change, continued to coalesce against the Yemeni government. The war began in September 2014 when the Houthis seized the capital city of Sana’a. The ensuing confrontation snowballed into an intense civil war, during which 10,000 have lost their lives.

The Houthis allied with security forces loyal to former president Saleh against the Yemeni government in March 2015, despite their prior protests of his leadership. In response, Saudi Arabia and a coalition of eight other Arab states, including Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Sudan, and Morocco, with U.S. support, are backing the Yemeni government against these forces.

Saudi Arabian officials see the Houthis as an extension of Iran’s influence. Iran does recognize the Houthi forces as the official authority in Yemen, but experts such as former defense analyst Thomas Juneau argue that Iran’s support for the Houthis is overstated. So far, Iran’s strategic investments in Yemen have been limited, and the Houthis are distinctly Zaydi Shi’ites, whose religious doctrine clashes with the form of Shi’ism practiced by Iranian Muslims.

This latest failed offer joins the list of unsuccessful peace negotiations in Yemen, tracing back to April. Any political solution may depend on whether the Houthis can de-radicalize their image enough to ease the Arab coalition. It also remains to be seen if pressure to end the conflict can overcome Saudi Arabia’s desire to curtail perceived Iranian threats.