Leadership Crisis in Liberal Party Could Lead to Party Expulsion of Australian PM

On February 6th , the ruling Liberal Party suddenly announced that it would be holding a spill motion due to internal doubt of the party leadership. The spill motion will consist of a vote of the 102 Liberal parliament members to declare the party leadership vacant. If this motion passes (a simple majority is required for its passage) nominations for the leadership may be put forward and put to a vote. It is expected that Communications Minister and former Liberal Party Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull, would be Abbott’s preferred replacement. Turnbull, the long term member for Wentworth, Eastern Sydney, has not yet announced his candidacy for the position nor has he come out in defence of Abbott. Foreign Minister and fellow prospective replacement Julie Bishop has voiced her support for the PM, albeit in the least enthusiastic way possible, refraining from vouching for Abbott’s competency at his job. Bishop said, "I agreed with the PM that, due to cabinet solidarity, and my position as deputy, there should be support for current leadership in spill motion.” Notably, she has left the door open for herself to compete for the leadership if the motion passes without her help on Tuesday.

This leadership crisis is coming on the heels of consecutive party mutinies against Labour Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, who were ousted from their leadership positions by the same mechanism. This internal mistrust and instability was widely believed to be a seminal feature of the party’s crushing defeat in the 2013 federal election, and Abbott is currently wielding this datum as a weapon of self-defence. ‘We are not the Labour Party,’ he stated avidly Friday, staunchly pushing back against his detractors both in and outside of his party. Abbott seems convinced that his seat is not really in jeopardy, and a number of senior liberal officials have come out with supportive remarks in his favour. However, sources on both sides of this newly defined aisle have explicitly agreed that the chances of the motion being carried are fair.

Although the eruption of party infighting was sudden, few Australians could claim complete and genuine shock as a response. Abbott’s numbers have been consistently low almost since right after he became Prime Minister; according to Fairfax Media polling, the Abbott led government is the first in 40 years not to experience ‘an extended period of being ahead in the polls’ following its ascent to government. A recent 7news poll taken in response to current developments put Labour/Liberal support at 55%/45% with Abbott leading the Liberals, versus 46%/54% with Turnbull at the party’s head. This crucial difference is representative of the fact that distaste for Abbott’s infamous public manner (including such incidents as referencing fellow party members’ sex appeal)  and ultra-conservative policy directions such as his hard line stance against conservation, is bipartisan, and thus could present a serious problem for the Liberals next time the Australian people go to the polls at the 2016 Federal Election. Luke Simpkins, the Liberal MP who prompted the spill motion, claimed that Abbott was irreversibly handicapped as a leader because people had stopped listening to him.

The prospect of a Turnbull-led government presents the possibility of a very different Australia to voters; one that still operates according to the principles of fiscal conservatism and  individual responsibility (read: reduced welfare spending) that underpin the Liberal mission, but concurrently pursues a far more progressive agenda on social issues such as environmentalism, abortion and same-sex marriage. Political analysts such as Professor Strangio of Monash University in Melbourne, claim that this will have a particularly positive influence for the Liberal party in Victoria, Australia’s most progressive state. "There's always been significant resistance to him [Abbott], and a view that he just doesn't fit the sensibilities of the state,’ Strangio told The Age. Conversely, Turnbull’s progressive agenda and reputation as the wealthiest man in parliament (his personal wealth is estimated at over A$170 million) may have the opposite effect on other clusters of Liberal support, particularly in rural areas of  the country’s North.

These speculations may or may not become concrete issues after the spill motion is put to the floor; but as of now, Tuesday looms over Australia’s wide expanse as a day for the nation to again hold its breath while its leader is determined behind closed doors.