Liberals Upset South Korea’s 20th General Election
Members of South Korea’s ruling Saenuri Party could not hide their disbelief and frustration as they witnessed the opposing Minjoo Party of Korea (MPK) gain an additional seat in the 20th General Election on April 13, slating it as the public favorite. Despite numerous polls that favored a relatively easy victory for the conservative Saenuri, the results defied all expectations, with MPK taking 123 seats, Saenuri with 122, People’s Party with 38, Justice Party with 6, and independents with 11.
The ballot includes all 300 seats, with proportional representation allocating 47 of them. Here, parties receive an allocation of seats proportional to these votes. Saenuri managed to earn 17 seats while MPK and People’s Party retained 13 each.
The last time the liberals held a majority in the National Assembly, between 2004 and 2008, they capitalized on public sympathy towards President Roh Moo Hyun as conservatives attempted to impeach him. Now, even without forming a coalition with the People’s Party, MPK effectively established a check on President Park for the remaining 22 months of her tenure.
The results indicate three major implications for Korean politics. First, the geographical distribution of votes shows a major breakdown of the regionalism that has plagued all branches of the Korean government. For the first time in 31 years, citizens of Daegu, the home turf for Saenuri, elected the MPK candidate Kim Boo Kyum into one of its 12 districts. Citizens of Busan, another stronghold for a conservative bloc, welcomed 5 members of the MPK.
Secondly, the People’s Party’s upset in the Honam region, the home of MPK, conveyed a message to the public that its position as a third party represents a serious force in Korean politics. MPK forfeited 22 seats out of 28 total in the Honam region to the People’s Party, including all 8 seats in Gwangju. With over 20 seats in the National Assembly, the People’s Party passed the threshold required for recognition as a parliamentary group, officially consolidating its legitimacy.
Finally, while it may seem too premature to discuss the presidential election for next year, the polls indicate a change in the political balance of power. Saenuri’s leader Kim Moo Sung announced his resignation as the party’s leader in the aftermath, inflicting significant damage on his chances on next year’s ballot. This also presents an opportunity for those advocating for United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon as the Saenuri candidate to gain significant momentum.
Moon Jae In, former presidential candidate for 2012 and still a leading candidate for the liberals, also received significant pressure to drop out from the race after the fiasco. Prior to the election, Moon said that he would refrain from further political ambitions if he could not win support from Honam.