Moldovan Separatist State Prepares for Russian Annexation

The Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, commonly known as Transnistria, is a separatist region on the west bank of the Dniester River, officially belonging to Moldova and located on its border with Ukraine. Since its self-proclaimed secession, it has pursued close ties with Moscow. On September 7, Evgeniy Shevchuk, the President of Transnistria, decreed that the unrecognized state’s laws will be brought in line with Russia’s by next month as a first step towards joining the Russian Federation.

Transnistria declared independence in September of 1990 from the Republic of Moldova with hopes of remaining in the Soviet Union. Many feared that the new Moldova would join Romania, leaving the culturally Soviet (and ethnically Russian and Ukrainian) population in a foreign land.

While the snaking stretch of land now has relatively little economic value, it was once the industrial heartland of the otherwise agricultural Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic. Previous to the annexation of Bessarabia and the creation of Soviet Moldova, the territory was considered an autonomous zone of Soviet Ukraine.

A war of independence raged after the full collapse of the Soviet Union, escalating until a final ceasefire was called on July 21, 1992. Soviet President Gorbachev had declared Transnistria illegitimate in 1990, but after the USSR’s collapse, Russia supported the unrecognized state. Russian troops would prove vital in ending the conflict; around 1,000 have remained in the territory since its end.

Moscow has provided more than just protection, footing the bill for (Russian) oil and gas, in addition to the pension system and nearly 70% of the Transnistrian budget. The separatist state has been accused of providing a haven for smugglers, with some weapons from the area allegedly finding their way to rebels in Chechnya, Georgia, and Africa.

On September 17, 2006, a referendum was held, with 97.2 percent voting to join Russia. While Russia refused to accept the petition for annexation, Transnistrian policies have remained focused on an eventual union. Ukraine’s pivots toward and away from Russia have strained its relations with the quasi-state.

This month’s declaration marks another direct attempt to join with Moscow. The chances of accession are low: Transnistria has no coastal access and is seen as a threat, particularly to Moldova. The status quo, from Russia’s point of view, has its benefits. The undercutting of Moldovan territorial integrity significantly complicates its chances of joining the European Union, and enduring support for Transnistria by Moscow shows commitment to the other Russian-backed breakaway states, particularly the Georgian separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Should the Kremlin accept Transnistria’s request to accede, it would further worsen the already tense relationship between Moscow and Transnistria’s neighbors, Ukraine and Moldova. The land would be a Russian exclave, reachable only through the airspace of the presumably hostile aforementioned countries.

Geopolitics may trump practicality, though, and the tenacity of the small breakaway state is undeniable. This is best summarized by the words of Vitaly Ignatiev, Transnistria’s Foreign Minister: “I am sure that Transnistria’s desire for unity and joint development with Russia is required to achieve its goal - it is only a matter of time.”