Philippine Duterte Undermines US Alliance, Courts China and Russia

Philippine President Duterte publically declared on September 29 that he would open alliances with the Russians and Chinese in light of declining relations with the United States. This shift reflects Duterte’s unyielding opposition to recent American criticism of the president’s new policies, including his ongoing war on drugs. In response to these condemnations, Duterte has emphasized his goal of developing economic ties with Russia and China, while also taking a more assertive stance against American influence in the region.

In his statement, Duterte announced that the Filipino people would have little to lose in “crossing the Rubicon” regarding relations with the United States, an expression which he used to indicate crossing to “a point of no return” in bilateral relations with the United States. Though Duterte denied that his statement entailed the immediate cutting of ties with the U.S., he emphasized the desire to ally with Russia and China on “the other side of the ideological barrier.”

Duterte also recently assigned a legal team to re-examine the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) in early October. The EDCA was created in response to growing anti-American sentiment in the Philippines in the late 1980s and was a U.S. attempt to reassert its commitment to developing stronger military ties with the Philippines. The agreement allows bilateral military access to both nations, but Duterte’s announcement of the reexamination was also accompanied by his threats to cancel the accord. Additionally, Duterte has declared the PHIBLEX joint US-Philippine military exercises to be the last between the two nations.

In addition to these active moves against U.S. relations, Duterte has ramped up to his diplomatic approaches to Beijing and Moscow. From October 19-21, Duterte will visit Beijing with 250 Filipino business executives to bolster Chinese investments. He has also announced upcoming visits to meet with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. After a rejected U.S. arms sale, Duterte told Obama to “go to hell,” a remark which indicates a belief that Russians and Chinese will indeed provide the Phillipines with weaponry.

In response to Duterte’s claims, State Department spokesperson Mark Toner stated, "They're a sovereign nation and we're certainly not going to hold them back from pursuing closer relations with either of those countries…. It's not a zero-sum game." Toner conceded, however, that the U.S. is well aware of Duterte’s aggressive rhetoric.

The Philippines remains key to U.S. interests in the South China Sea, which the former directly parallels. The reduction of Philippine military reliance presents a challenge to the United States as the latter grapples with consistent Chinese aggression. The U.S.-Philippine alliance represents one of the hallmarks of the Obama administration’s “Shift to Asia.” Duterte’s foreign policy indicates a reversal of American gains, and with it, the strategic balancing against American influence in the entire Asia-Pacific region.

Duterte nonetheless insists on maintaining the American alliance. Moreover, he recognizes the “necessity” of the American presence in the South China Sea. His emphasis on economic ties have not reflected any challenges to U.S. interests, but rather proven lucrative to independent Filipino interests. If Duterte is genuine in his desire to simply remove American influence in Philippine domestic policy, his current actions may not radically shift the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region. On the contrary, if his intensifying volatility continues, he may sour American relations indefinitely.