Putin’s New World Order
As the sun finally sets on the Ukrainian Civil War, the new dawn is rising – revealing the uncomfortable realities of a new world order that has formed in the wake of the conflict. Stretching back to the first protests in November of 2013, the Ukrainian Civil War served as both backdrop to and catalyst for a series of political clashes between Russia and the West, including Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Western imposition of extensive economic sanctions, and waging of a cutthroat information war on both sides. It is clear that these experiences have served to radically alter the existing political order - there can be no return to “business as usual” or simple reversal to normalized relations between Russia and the West. However much we might wish it, there is no “reset button” to save us this time.
The first aspect of this new world order that must be reckoned with is the soaring domestic political popularity of President Vladimir Putin. Recent polls show that Putin’s popularity rating currently stands at a whopping 84%, up a full twenty percentage points from a poll taken just weeks before the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis back in October. This boost in popularity is reflected at all levels of Russian society – including among the youth and urban populations, which have traditionally been most skeptical of the President’s politics. The recent, nationwide celebrations of Putin’s 62nd birthday have revealed telltale signs that the development of a cult of personality is underway, as fanfare for the president ranged from mass rallies in Chechnya to extravagant art shows and exhibitions which glorified the President’s life and achievements. One such exhibition included artistic portrayals of Putin clothed in Herculean garb as he single-handedly fought off a multi-headed, monstrous viper that represented the US, EU and Canada.
The reasons for this upturn in popularity are not hard to unriddle. While the immediate importance of the annexation of Crimea and the alleged “humanitarian” intervention of Russia in Ukraine in winning over Russians to the Putinist cause is hard to understate, it is clear that other long-term factors are also at work. Putin’s strong and dignified opposition to the West strikes a powerful chord in a nation that endured the bitter defeat of the Cold War and the subsequent fall from a position of great power status. In the present day, a growing number of Russians pine for a return of the perceived glories of Soviet days, when their society commanded respect and influence in the international community. Himself a product of this typical Russian psychology, Putin has worked for years to build up his reputation as the “dignified father of the homeland” who is capable of reclaiming that respect from the international community. In a further move to bolster his image at home, Putin has striven actively to paint the West as a morally corrupt adversary whose meddling threatens the purity of the Russian nation. All of these factors reached a catalyst during the Ukrainian conflict, when Putin was finally given a crisis under which he could fully embrace his carefully prepared role of protector. In this case, Western sanctions were the last nail in the coffin, cementing the solidarity of Russian interests in a patriotic frenzy against the antagonistic “other.”
Whatever their origin, the consequences of Putin’s domestic popularity for the new world order are very real, and very dangerous. Buoyed by his high ratings and unfettered by any meaningful domestic legal opposition, the President has effectively been given a green light to follow his own ambitious political vision for the future of Russia. The most recent pet project of Putin – a law aimed at restricting internet freedoms – was pushed through the Duma with almost no opposition whatsoever, demonstrating the limitlessness of the President’s newfound lease of power. Through their own ineffectual use of sanctions, the international community has similarly sent the message of their unwillingness to take steps that could check Russia’s actions in a meaningful way.
Faced with overwhelming support at home and weak resistance abroad, Putin has decided to move forward in the final stage of his consolidation of power. In a recent speech at the Valdai Conference in Sochi, Putin effectively declared war on the international system – decrying it as a “unipolar dictatorship” that manipulates international law for its own benefit and imposes its double standards on the world community of nations. In a declaration of unveiled anti-Americanism, Putin was bold in his criticism of US hegemony in the post-Cold War order, describing how failed US leadership has led to a situation of increasingly widespread “global anarchy.” And, it seems, Putin has no qualms about manipulating this worldwide anarchy to his country’s benefit. The Russian Bear, he states, “will not even bother to ask permission” of the international community to act in the taiga - a region in which it is master. While Putin holds that Russia has no aggressive or expansive intentions, he makes it clear that Russia has no plans to compromise in areas where it has perceived interests and will not hesitate to reclaim the respect that it feels it deserves. “We have no need of getting involved in things, of ordering others around, but we want others to stay out of our affairs and to stop pretending they rule the world. That is all.”
As political punches continue to fly back and forth between Russia and the West, it is unclear as to how this all will end. The rules of the political chess game have fundamentally changed, but the players are still only setting up their boards. What comes next is anyone’s guess, but we can be sure that there is no going back to the pre-Maidan world order. In this new game, both sides are in it to win.