Religion-based Politics to jeopardize outcome of 2015 Nigerian Elections?

With the 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria just around the corner, former President  of Nigeria Olusegun Obasanjo has warned the nation against forming what he describes as “Muslim-Muslim” or “Christian-Christian” presidential and vice-presidential candidates. The former president’s comments have popularly been construed as a reaction to statements made by the former Head of State General Muhammadu Buhari, who said in an interview with The Cable online newspaper that he was not opposed to a presidential ticket which includes Muslim presidential candidate and a Muslim vice presidential candidate. According to Mr. Obasanjo, such a ticket would be “bad politics” and “insensitive” to the different ethnic and religious groups in the country, ranging from the Hausa (Muslim) populations in the North to the largely Christian Yoruba and Igbo populations in the south.

In any democratic system, factions are inevitable. Yet, although they are typically  divisive, they can still be beneficial to the overall democratic structure so long as they are sensitive to personal matters like ethnicity and religion. However, they must also not rely solely on these factors, but rather on logical and practical platforms to support their political principles. In his statement last Sunday in Abeokuta, the former president seemed to  suggest that this dangerous divisiveness may be where Nigeria’s political system is headed if candidates run on religious tickets; An insensitive, biased system governed by a single religious ideology which would resemble a theocracy much more than it would a democracy.

Although he did not explicitly mention any specific parties that he perceived to be heading in this direction, local observers point out that this admonishment is most likely targeted at the All Progressive Congress (APC), which has been suspected of politically scheming to run on such a ticket. Part of the concern about the APC running on a religious ticket stems from the departure of the former Aviation minister Femi Fani-Kayode from the APC to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), especially since he disclosed that one of the main reasons for his conversion was the fact that the APC was considering endorsing a Muslim–Muslim presidential ticket to represent its party.

According to Obasanjo, due to the already high religious tensions in the country, it would be too risky for Nigeria to even toy with the prospect of Islamization or Christianization at this point, which is exactly what such a ticket would do. These fears are part of what has fueled the ideology and resilience of Islamic militants like Boko Haram, who now seeks to invoke Sharia law to ‘right’ all the wrongs they believe Nigeria’s increasingly Christian Government has done against the Muslim faith in Nigeria, whether actively or passively.

To further understand President Obasanjo's fear, it is important to conceptualize two potential outcomes in the event that candidates run on religion-based tickets: one situation in which a fully Muslim ticket wins the election and assumes power, and another in which a fully Christian ticket takes control of the government.

In the event that the government becomes entirely controlled by Muslim leadership, it is likely that groups like Boko Haram would more easily reach their objective of instituting Sharia law, and have the political framework to actuate their policies while also creating the type of conditions that could lead to the rise of marginalized Christian extremist groups.

Conversely, the ascension of a fully Christian government could potentially marginalize and aggravate local Muslim groups and populations further. Hence, there is perhaps some wisdom to be obtained from the former president who , saw enormous religious divide in Nigeria during his time in office from 1999 to 2007, which led to the early stages of the formation of extremist groups like Boko Haram that feel that their faiths are either not being adequately represented or that they as a group are actively being oppressed in Nigerian politics.

Thus it is clear that from all considerations, a strictly religious presidential ticket would not yield any considerable benefits. In fact, as President Obasanjo suggests, it could only escalate social and political divisions--perhaps even in a way that could surpass the troubles that he as a Yoruba man had to face in representing both the Hausa (Muslim) populations of Northern Nigeria and the largely Christian Yoruba and Igbo populations in the South.