Russian, U.S. Bombings End Syria Ceasefire
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov
On September 9, 2016, both the US and Russian governments had promoted a ceasefire agreement as a humanitarian measure that could lead to further cooperation in ending the war. However, a US airstrike that killed an estimated 62 Syrian troops and a Russian attack on a UNs-sponsored aid convoy have led to accusations of intentional ceasefire violations and a breakdown in the cessation of hostilities.
Since 2011, Russia has assessed its interests and priorities in the conflict differently than the United States. It has consistently supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his regime by prioritizing its preservation as its key interest in the conflict. Along with China, itvetoed a 2012 UN resolution that called for Assad to step down, citing the resolution’s infringement on Syrian sovereignty. The United States, meanwhile, prioritizes the fight against ISIS, though it has provided support and training to Syrian opposition groups. These fundamental differences, along with the concerns of regional powers and the complex nature of the conflict, ensure that even temporary ceasefires are fragile.
That fragility became apparent just days after the most recent agreement was negotiated. On September 17, US officials confirmed that an airstrike meant to hit ISIS positions had struck Syrian forces. According to the New York Times, Russian officials had previouslywarned that the strikes were close to Syrian positions.
In response, Russia called an emergency UN Security Council meeting, and issued a statement saying that airstrikes in Syria “can be carried out only within the framework of international law. This implies not a formal unilateral notification of the strikes, but the existence of explicit consent of the Syrian government or a relevant decision by the UN Security Council.”
“The main thing now is to prevent the collapse of those arrangements [between Russia and the US], objectively and impartially investigate the undermining incidents in Deir ez-Zor and Aleppo,” said Russian foreign Sergei Lavrov in his address before the UN, adding that that “there’s many who want to sabotage the agreed approaches to the Syrian settlement.”
However, recent Russian actions have done little to inspire cooperation. On Monday, September 19, a Syrian Arab Red Crescent convoy was bombed near Aleppo. The Washington Postreports that both US intelligence sources and open-source intelligence groups attribute the attack to Russian forces, or to Syrian government forces using Russian-supplied weapons. In a UN meeting after the attack, US Secretary of State John Kerryaccused Lavrov of living in a “parallel universe” for his response to the attacks, and pointed out that Lavrov’s warning against “preconditions” at the negotiating table could not include the ceasefire agreements that both governments had agreed to in previous negotiations.
Kerry, like Lavrov, cited international law to substantiate his argument, saying that “you don’t need to read these documents to understand it’s against international law to bomb hospitals. You don’t need these documents to understand that you don’t drop barrel bombs on children. These are flagrant violations of international law.”
Though the convoy attack fits the definition of a war crime, it will not soon be prosecuted . Furthermore, although the USclaims that the ceasefire is “not dead,” eyewitness footage from Alepposhows otherwise. Both Russia and the US have placed the blame for ceasefire violations on the other side, and allowed their allies and proxies to escalate the conflict. This most recent ceasefire has gone the way of previous agreements, and it is unlikely that the relevant parties will reach a new one in the near future.