Scottish Government Raises Possibility of New Independence Referendum

The Scottish government published a draft bill on October 20 that proposes a second referendum on Scottish independence from the UK. The draft states that a new referendum could be held if the Scottish parliament "consider[s] that it is the best approach to safeguarding Scotland's interests." This draft bill is the latest move in the Scottish National Party (SNP)’s decades-long fight to secede from Britain, efforts that were renewed following the recent Brexit vote. The movement for Scottish independence has gained support following the SNP’s election to head the Scottish government in 2007. The SNP organized the first referendum on Scottish independence in 2014, yet voters rejected independence by 55% to 45%. Still, the SNP remained popular and kept its position as Scotland's leading party after the national election of May 2015 and the local elections of May 2016.

The SNP then renewed its efforts for independence after the Brexit vote of June 2016. While the United Kingdom as a whole voted to leave the European Union by 51.9 percent, Scotland voted to remain 62 percent to 38 percent. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon asserted that “Scotland is in a position right now that we didn’t ask to be in,” and as such considers Scotland’s renewed efforts towards independence to be legitimate, particularly given Brexit’s predicted effects on the Scottish economy.

Scottish government officials now believe that leaving the European Union will diminish tax revenue, reduce Scottish exports to Europe, and harm the economic well-being of Scotland. Projections show a “Hard Brexit” could provoke the loss of up to 80,000 jobs and lower GDP by 5 percent in Scotland. Indeed, according to a report published on October 6 by the Fraser of Allander Institute, a research institute at the University of Strathclyde, Brexit would have "a significant negative impact on the Scottish economy.”

The second draft bill for a referendum follows a series of tense exchanges between the Scottish government and the British government regarding Brexit negotiations. On October 2, Scottish Minister for Brexit Michael Russel announced that, if Scotland’s “vital interests are not protected,” the Scottish parliament could block British Prime Minister Theresa May’s “Great Repeal Act” to replace EU laws with new British legislation. On October 14, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon asserted she wants Scotland to stay part of EU single market, even if the rest of the UK leaves it. Sturgeon said that such a failure to stay in the single market would prompt Scotland to organize a new referendum.

Sturgeon also reasserted that Scotland should be treated as an “equal partner” in Brexit talks. Yet she described her last meeting with Theresa May over the Brexit as “deeply frustrating” and cited the lack of information May gave her on Scotland’s future relationship with the EU.

BBC’s Political Editor, Glenn Campbell, remarked on October 20 that it is still difficult to know if Sturgeon will really push for a new referendum. Rather, she might be using the threat of a referendum as leverage to get new powers in agriculture and immigration and a special deal to stay in the EU’s single market.

In fact, Scottish independence still appears difficult to secure. Sturgeon’s pushes for independence were coldly received by the British government, whose approval is needed to organize a new referendum. On October 14, Theresa May’s spokesperson asserted that the British government did not believe “there was a mandate” for a new vote and that, after the 2014 referendum, "both sides agreed to abide by that referendum."

Besides, Scottish independence still lacks popular support. Recent opinion polls tend to show a majority of Scots are still opposed to independence. However, many in the SNP believe that the prospect of a “Hard Brexit” without access to the EU’s single market will eventually increase public support for independence and that a new campaign could change minds.

As Politico reported on October 16, when previous Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond obtained the agreement to organize the first referendum in 2012, support for independence was only at 28 percent, but two years later, support for independence had reached 45 percent.