Strange Bedfellows: Can Instability in Afghanistan Create an Opportunity for India-Pakistan relations?

The world was taken by surprise in September when the Taliban stormed the Afghan city of Kunduz. The offensive in Afghanistan’s sixth-largest city—the first major city to fall to the Taliban since the war began in 2001—raised concerns about the planned timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. and coalition troops and the stability of post-conflict Afghanistan. In response, President Obama has announced his intention to keep 5,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan into 2017 to support the Afhgan National Army. “Afghan forces are still not as strong as they need to be… meanwhile, the Taliban has made gains, particularly in rural areas, and can still launch deadly attacks in cities, including Kabul,” the President said at the White House, explaining his decision.

While the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan following the death of longtime Taliban leader of Mullah Omar and the appointment of new leader Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour certainly have significant implications for long-term American interests in the region, it is oft-forgotten that the future of Afghanistan has substantial regional consequences for South Asia and the conflict between its two main regional players, India and Pakistan.  

Since the U.S. invasion in 2001 post 9/11, Afghanistan has become yet another facet of the complex India-Pakistan conflict. While there has been minimal cooperation between India and Pakistan over Afghan stability and the two countries share a history fraught with tension and distrust, the issue could represent an interesting starting point for cooperation. Policymakers and stakeholders in both countries have recognized this possibility, and have begun i Track II discussions and other forms of informal diplomatic engagement.

A Troublesome History

When the Partition split India and Pakistan into two sovereign nations in 1947, the South Asian subcontinent was set on a path of conflict and turmoil that still plagues the region today. Over the last half-century, the two countries have had more than five armed conflicts at the informal Line of Control in Kashmir and in 1998, tested nuclear weapons within days of each other. The constant conflict over Kashmir and a significant lack of channels for mutual engagement and exchange has perpetuated a cycle of stimulus-response, in which both India and Pakistan respond swiftly and often excessively to perceived aggression by the other country, making any progress in relations difficult.

However, many thought that the election of Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in 2013 and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014 opened the door for constructive engagement on issues like resource security, trade, and fighting extremism. Newly-appointed Pakistani Commerce Minister Khurram Khan encapsulated this sentiment in words when he  said that “relations should not be derailed by individual events. An unpleasant event happens and trade talks are suspended, which should not be the case. We are aiming to open up trade, and it requires a stable and predictable relationship, which doesn't exist at the moment."

A Tri-polar South Asia

Afghanistan presents an opportunity for bilateral cooperation and engagement. Securing a stable future for Afghanistan is in the interests of both India and Pakistan, and both countries are starting to recognize the implications of the security vacuum that will be created due to NATO withdrawal.

Moreover, both countries on the subcontinent have had rich histories, relationships, and shared culture with Afghans since ancient times, and now have vested geopolitical interests in its future and stability.

Indiahas also played a major role in the development and reconstruction of Afghanistan over the past decade, beingthe fifth largest donor of aid after the US, UK, Japan, and Germany. In total, India has provided Afghanistan more than $2 billion in aid mainly for projects in power, roads, agriculture, and education.

When Afghan President Ashraf Ghani won the national election in 2014, he cited improving relations with Pakistan as a top priority: if Islamabad would cut its links with the Afghan Taliban, Kabul would aid Pakistan in  preventing anti-Pakistan forces from seeking sanctuary in Afghanistan.

The Future

Last week, the Taliban announced that they had withdrawn from Kunduz City, which the group had held for fifteen days. However, there is still much work to be done with regards to securing a stable future for Afghanistan. In the first six months of 2015, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan documented the highest level of civilian casualties in the country since 2008.

Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter, speaking at the Pentagon several weeks ago, said the next American president would probably need to make decisions about the long-term position of U.S. forces­ in Afghanistan.

There is hope however that a security solution to Afghanistan might come from regional players, rather than a NATO-backed or international force. India has been for long stuck in the debate about whether to supply Kabul with weapons it has requested; Prime Minister Narendra Modi has chosen to remain non-committal. Senior Pakistani military officers say one of the reasons they have a continued interest in Afghanistan is because India is extending its influence there. If both countries can overcome their trust deficit and more proactively engage in Afghanistan, they might be able to begin to break down barriers to ultimate normalization.