The Art of the Deal: Kazakhstan and Germany Hold Bilateral Trade Talks in Berlin
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev hold a press conference following their September 28, 2023 meeting in Berlin (photo courtesy of German Federal Government)
By Robert W. Moore III
On September 28, 2023, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced that Kazakhstan would increase its supply of oil resources to Germany following a high-profile meeting in Berlin with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Nevertheless, Tokayev did not specify an exact amount by which Kazakh oil exports to Germany would be increased. Calling Germany “a strategic partner country in the European Union,” Tokayev declared that “at our German friends’ request, I have confirmed out country’s readiness to increase oil supplies and make them long-term.” Scholz described Kazakhstan as Germany’s most important Central Asian trading partner “by a distance” and called the former Soviet republic “an important partner to broaden our supply channels, for example with the import of crude oil, and to make us independent of Russian deliveries.”
The bilateral meeting between Tokayev and Scholz preceded a wider September 29 summit involving the leaders of Germany, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. During the summit, European and Central Asian diplomats discussed strengthening geopolitical and economic cooperation, as well as the development of a so-called “Middle Corridor” supply route connecting the two regions. A joint declaration made by the heads of state involved in the summit noted that “the leaders confirmed their interest in developing the Middle Corridor and attracting financing for projects under the Global Gateway Initiative.” Chairwoman of the Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations Catharina Claas-Mühlhäuser called the meeting “historic” and identified energy, raw materials, agriculture, transportation, and vocational training as key areas of future economic cooperation. Kazakhstan has already shipped 500,000 metric tons of oil to Germany via the Russian Druzhba Pipeline according to data released by Tokayev’s office.
The negotiations between Kazakhstan and Germany have occurred at a time of increased economic strain in Europe due to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Some Western observers have voiced fears that, given Kazakhstan’s status as a former Soviet republic and the presence of a large ethnic Russian minority there, the Tokayev government could help Moscow circumvent international sanctions regimes. Tokayev himself denied that Kazakhstan would engage in such behavior during the September 28 meeting with Scholz and remarked that “Kazakhstan has unequivocally stated that it will follow the sanctions regime… [and] it seems to me that there should be no fears on the German side.” Additionally, the leaders of all the Central Asian states present at the September 29 summit released a statement reaffirming their commitment to upholding the global sanctions regime against Russia. However, some experts have cited increased trade volumes between Russia and Central Asia in recent months and argued that this information indicates that some states in the region are buying Western goods that Russia cannot purchase itself and reselling them to Moscow at a profit.
The summit also broached the controversial subject of Kazakhstan’s human rights record. The Central Asian state consistently performs poorly in global liberty indices, and it placed 134th in the 2023 World Press Freedom Index while scoring 0.28 out of 1.00 in the 2022 Electoral Democracy Index. Tokayev assumed the presidency after winning a landslide election in 2022 with 80% of the vote. OSCE observers conceded that the ballot was “efficiently prepared,” but stressed the lack of competition in the election and recommended the passage of laws to ensure a “genuine plurality” after voter turnout hit a record low of 69%. At his meeting with Tokayev on September 28, Scholz assured reporters that “we clearly discussed how the rule of law also plays a large role” and that “the president described to me his plans to expand the rule of law to protect human rights and democratic principles in the country.”