The Philippine General Elections: Family Ties and Personality Politics?

Formal campaigning began in the Philippines for the May 9 general elections two weeks ago. Since then, tensions surrounding the upcoming elections have heightened, especially as rumors of current President Benigno Aquino III’s “secret bet” regarding his endorsement of presidential candidates surfaced on February 18, The Philippine Daily Inquirer reported. According to The Rappler, information surfaced in July 2015 that Aquino would endorse the Liberal Party and its candidate Manuel Roxas II in the upcoming presidential elections. However, suspicions arose that Aquino might instead decide to endorse independent candidate Grace Poe after her appearance at Aquino’s birthday dinner.

It remains to be seen whether presidential endorsements are effective, for they seem to have had little to no effect in the past. Nevertheless, due to the fact that Aquino’s administration has been more highly rated than any of its predecessors, Channel NewsAsia reported that many consider Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas to be a “game changer.”

Elections in the Philippines have been notoriously characterized by personality politics and familial ties. A majority of former Philippine presidents, current politicians and current presidential candidates are descended from former politicians or presidents. Roxas II, for instance, is the son of former President Manuel Roxas, who co-founded the Liberal Party in 1945. Aquino himself is the son of former president Corazon Aquino (1986-92) and Senator Benigno Aquino. This concentration of power within close-knit family networks in the government has perpetuated corruption.

Interaksyon reported that in the lead-up to the current campaign, alliances between former presidents and current candidates have been formed. These include the “Aquino-Roxas tandem” when Roxas ran for Vice President in 2010 and “Estrada-masa,” referring to former President Estrada’s support for Senator Grace Poe when she ran for the Senate in 2013.

When Roxas II campaigned for Vice President in 2010 as part of current president Aquino’s campaign, he obtained 11.2 million votes. He lost to current Vice President Binay’s 12 million votes, whose campaign was carried by the “Estrada-Binay tandem.” In a similar manner, Estrada’s support for Poe during her candidacy for the Senate brought her 20.3 million votes, postulated to have come from votes obtained by Aquino (12.3 million) and Estrada (7.7 million), bolstered by the backing of the Liberal Party.

So far, there is no definitive evidence that endorsements are a defining factor in Philippine elections. Poe’s current popularity is clear; she has consistently held a commanding lead in surveys and polls. However, with support from President Aquino and the Liberal Party, Roxas II’s eventual victory this May may “not be surprising after all.”