The Philippines Under Duterte: A Changing Dynamic for SE Asia

Since winning the Philippine presidential election on May 9, Rodrigo Duterte has remained prominent on the international stage for his unpolished and profane remarks, particularly regarding key international leaders. His domestic policy focuses on combating the illegal drug trade, a major issue for the Philippines, but his methods are undoubtedly controversial.

Since Duterte’s election, more than 3,600 people—mostly small-time drug users and dealers—have died at the hands of vigilantes connected to the police. Following a report from the United Nations that called out his government for the increase in extrajudicial killings, Duterte threatened to withdraw from the UN and create a new organization. Duterte’s apparent disregard for the international status quo and refusal to play along with the policy agenda of international powers have been major points of contention. Duterte’s administration has also vowed to pursue an independent foreign policy to prevent foreign governments from meddling in the country’s affairs—a development that could disrupt the dynamic of Southeast Asia as a whole.

Interestingly, President Duterte’s colorful comments have earned him major domestic approval. According to a Pulse Asia poll conducted in July, Duterte began his presidency on a high note, with 91 percent of his constituents expressing trust in him. Such an outpouring of popular support for actions that have angered major allies could promote a trend among Southeast Asian leaders. President’s Duterte’s nationalist rhetoric and his disregard for censorship have worked well within his own country, indicating to other leaders that they should possibly follow his lead.

In response to the South China Sea territorial disputes, President Duterte also changed the regional security dynamic drastically. During his recent trip to Beijing, Duterte announced a separation from the United States, a prominent security ally since 1951, and signalled his shift to a closer alliance with China. From a geostrategic perspective, a closer China-Philippines relationship would demonstrate to periphery states not aligned with either the US or China that bandwagoning with Beijing might prove ideal. The Philippines gained victory over China in front of the International Tribunal at the Hague in July, when the Court rejected China’s argument that it enjoys historic rights over most of the South China Sea. This may give the governments of other Southeast Asian nations, such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam, potential leverage in their own maritime disputes with Beijing.

After Duterte’s Beijing trip, CNN reported that Filipino fishermen have now been granted access to the previously contested Scarborough Shoal. Philippines Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana stated that aerial surveillance has shown that Chinese patrol boats still guard the reef, but now allow Filipino boats to enter. In managing to hammer out what appears to be a deal with the Chinese, Duterte has accomplished significant strategic goals with minimum sacrifice. What does this mean for the rest of Southeast Asia? The region has seen many efforts to balance against external threats, from the reestablishment of relations between Myanmar and the United States to the Philippines agreement in 2014 to re-admit US troops to military bases after 25 years. President Duterte’s actions signify a step in the opposite direction, one that embraces the so-called “threat” and pushes away the traditional ally. After witnessing the relative success of such a strategy, other countries in the region may decide to follow suit, which may alter the security dynamic and development of Southeast Asia drastically.