Treading Water

U.S. Army Assistant Chief of Staff Colonel Tom Hanson recently ruffled feathers by insisting that Australia would ultimately have to choose between its security ties with the United States and its economic engagements with China. Both he and the Pentagon were quick to point out that this statement was a personal view and not one that reflected American policy. However, the comments have struck a nerve in Australia as the country debates how to best respond to a Chinese economy that is slowing down while the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) continues to assert its positions by force in the South China Sea. One could argue that Australia is being pulled between two increasingly disparate plans on how to proceed as its economic interests in Chinese investment and trade collide with its security and international legal interests of the U.S.-led alliance system. For the time being, Australia has managed to deftly navigate this divergence by maintaining its economic ties with China while agreeing to host American military personnel and engage in joint and independent operations that challenge China’s Air Defense Identification Zone in the South China Sea. However, this capacity to walk this tightrope may be becoming ever more difficult.

As relations between the U.S. and China have deteriorated in recent weeks, illustrated by the series of diplomatic gaffes during the G20 summit hosted by Beijing, Australia’s position has become more and more tenuous. Its diplomatic strategy can only hold while neither the U.S. nor China see the other as acting against their vital interests. As China increasingly asserts its territorial claims in the South China Sea while the U.S. denies them, and as China continues to ink major economic deals to blanket the Eurasian continent with its New Silk Road, the conflict of interests between China and the United States may grow to a point where Australia must indeed be forced to choose.

It is worth noting that the Pentagon and Australia both still feel, at least publicly, that such a scenario is quite far-fetched. As such, Australia’s position is tenable, though admittedly difficult. Whatever the ultimate scenario may be, there is little doubt Australia would be a much sought after prize for both aspiring Pacific powers, and Australia may be able to use this sway to influence both countries as a kingmaker in the years to come.