Turkey’s growing number of Syrian refugees and its consequences

In the recent weeks, Turkish Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, publicly stated that his country fears that the takeover by ISIS or the regime forces of Syria’s second city, Aleppo, until now controlled by the rebels, could result into the influx of two to three million additional refugees to Turkey. Comparing ISIS to the Assad regime, Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, was quoted as saying: "both of them are killing people brutally and don’t refrain from using any kinds of weapons at their disposal. Both force people to flee their land."

Based on official Turkish figures, approximately 1.6 million refugees from Syria have entered Turkey since the beginning of the civil war in Syria in March 2011. According to a report recently released by Amnesty International, more than 85% of those refugees live outside government-run camps. It is estimated that the financial toll for Turkey of hosting the Syrian refugees amounts to $4 billion. Turkey also granted free healthcare to all Syrian refugees, though it does not cover medicine or treatment of chronic diseases. However, the report criticized the Turkish authorities for requesting a valid passport at its border with Syria, unless in the case of urgent medical needs. It also pointed out that seventeen people have been killed by guards at unofficial crossing points since the beginning of the year.

The UNHCR, the United Nations agency for refugees, voiced additional concerns that hundreds of thousands of Syrians may become stateless. Indeed, many identity documents have been lost, destroyed or have expired. To make things worse, ISIS started to destroy official records in Syria. Getting new documents means returning to Syria or making a costly trip to Istanbul, Amman or Beirut. For children born outside of Syria, the question of proving their Syrian nationality gets even more complicated while the neighboring countries do not grant them an alternative citizenship simply because they are born on their soil.

Turkey hosts about half of the Syrian refugees (1.6 million), followed by Lebanon (1.1 million) and Jordan (600,000). On October 23, Lebanon, through its Information Minister Ramzi Jreij, announced that it could not accept new Syrian refugees, due to the strains put on the infrastructure of the country as well as on its job market, and encouraged those already in Lebanon to move to other countries. The Lebanese precedent is a source of worry as Jordan and Turkey could follow suit, an eventuality whose likelihood would be increased by the fall of Aleppo.

The increasingly unstable situation for Turkey has led to tensions with the US despite Vice President Biden’s three-day trip to Turkey this weekend. While there, the Vice President announced $135 million in new aid for Syrian refugees. The visit of the Vice-President followed the visits of top US military officials as well as of John Allen, the Special Envoy for the coalition, while Turkey and the US are increasingly at odds over the strategy to adopt in Syria. Indeed, the US under Obama has defined the fight against ISIS as its priority while Turkey wants it to be broadened to include toppling the Assad regime in Syria. As a result, President Erdogan refuses to open Turkish bases, including Incirlik Air Base, to the US-led coalition against ISIS until his demands are met. Chief among them is the creation of safe havens in Syria through the establishment of no-fly zones. So far, the US has refused to widen its priority, despite assertions by the Turkish Prime and Foreign Ministers that the American policy was shifting, claims swiftly denied by President Obama.

However, Turkey has found a new ally in France. In an op-ed published in the Washington Post, Le Figaro and Al Hayat, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius echoed Turkey’s call to expand the mission of the US-led coalition to prevent the fall of Aleppo. France was left standing alone in August 2013 when President Obama decided to seek approval from Congress regarding military strikes against the Syrian regime following the use of chemical weapons by the latter. French president, Francois Hollande, also held talks last month with President Erdogan regarding the prospect of establishing no-fly zones over parts of the Syrian territory. This position is also favored by Saudi Arabia, widening the rift between the US and a number of coalition partners.