OPINION: Understanding Iran’s Post-Deal Provocations

Seven months after the nuclear deal between the P5+1 and Iran, Iran is publicly mocking the United States. Following Iran’s capture of ten U.S. Navy sailors last month, on February 10 Iranian state television released a video of one of the captured sailors crying. The next day, Iran again derided the US by marching actors dressed as the captured American sailors at a parade celebrating the anniversary of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran’s actions can be understood within the paradigm of a three-way power struggle between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, moderate President Hassan Rouhani, and the hardline generals of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Rouhani and Khamenei’s interests aligned for the deal. The negotiations served Rouhani’s aims to increase Iran’s integration with the world, and Khamenei allowed the negotiations because he understood Iran’s need for sanctions relief.

Now, the interests of the IRGC and Khamenei are aligned against Rouhani. The hardline generals oppose the deal and adamantly want a nuclear weapon. Khamenei wants to stop the deal from causing rapprochement with the US, which would undermine the legitimacy of his office. (Anti-Americanism legitimized the revolution that brought the first Supreme Leader to power.) Thus, Iran’s provocations can be interpreted as hardline pushback against the moderates and their deal.

By celebrating the humiliation of American servicemen with the video and parade, Iranian hardliners disparaged Rouhani’s moderates at a crucial juncture. On February 26, hardline and reformist candidates will clash in national elections. However, the hardline Guardian Council disqualified thousands of moderate candidates from running for parliament and the Assembly of Experts, which will likely select the next Supreme Leader. Nevertheless, the elections will mark a crucial moment in post-deal Iran: they may yield the beginning of a long path to reform or the consolidation of hardline control.