U.S.-Iran Prisoner Swap Creates Possibility for Further Negotiations

Iran conducts nuclear talks with the United Nations and Permanent Members in 2014 (Creative Commons).

By Melis Akkum

Iran released seven American prisoners on September 19, 2023 in exchange for six billion USD of its assets held in South Korea and five Iranian prisoners held in the United States. The deal marked the culmination of two years of negotiations between the United States and the Islamic Republic, which were facilitated by Qatar, Oman, and Switzerland due to the lack of official diplomatic relations between the two primary participants.

Until the September deal, South Korea was reluctant to pay its six billion dollar account for previous oil purchases in fear of violating U.S. sanctions against Iran, creating a heavy burden on the Iranian economy. U.S. sanctions have cost Iran at least $450 billion in oil revenues, so the release of these assets by South Korean banks promises much-needed economic relief.

The negotiated funds will be deposited into Qatar, whose government, under the indirect influence of the United States, will have control over Iran’s access and use. Such oversight will provide Qatar with a unique power over Iran and the entire Gulf region. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has protested, arguing, “this money belongs to the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

This deal presents as a small step toward diplomatic relations between the United States and Iran, and will be crucial for nuclear talks in the region as President Joe Biden considers reentering the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The JCPOA is a deal negotiated between the UN’s P5 permanent members (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States), Iran, and Germany during the Obama administration to regulate Iran’s nuclear weapons development in exchange for sanctions relief.

In 2018, under President Trump, the United States pulled out of the JCPOA and reinforced sanctions, claiming the deal was insufficient to curb Iran’s influence in the region. Iran stopped complying with the regulations approximately one year after the United States’ withdrawal. The Middle Eastern state is now closer to holding a nuclear weapon than it was during the Trump administration. Pursuing cordial diplomatic relations—while maintaining the U.S. upper hand—could be a step towards a revitalized JCPOA that would settle nuclear talks in the Gulf and provide relief to the Iranian economy, although drastic change is doubtful.