Conflict in Syria’s Last Rebel-Held Province Intensifies, Displacing Half a Million

Turkish forces patrol the town of Manbij, Syria. (Wikimedia Commons)

Fighting between the Syrian army and rebel forces continues to escalate in Syria’s Idlib province, near the Turkish border. The Syrian government’s Russian-backed offensive began in December 2019 and recently captured the towns of Maarat al-Numan in late January and Saraqeb in early February. Bombings conducted by the Syrian government in Idlib, the last bastion of rebel territory in Syria, have entered their third month. According to the UN, since December, more than 500,000 Syrians have been displaced by the hostilities in Idlib, with many heading toward the Turkish border.

In 2017, officials from Russia, Turkey, and Iran met in Kazakhstan to declare Idlib a de-escalation zone. In September 2018, Russia and Turkey reiterated their commitment to establishing a de-escalation zone in Idlib, and Turkey built a dozen observation posts in the province. Turkey maintains that the Syrian army’s recent offensive disregards these agreements. Having already taken in more than 3.5 million Syrians since the conflict began, the Turkish government fears that the renewed fighting in Idlib may drive hundreds of thousands more to its borders.

Tensions between Ankara, which supports the rebels, and Moscow, which favors Assad, peaked when seven Turkish soldiers and a contractor were killed in a Syrian artillery strike on February 3. The Turkish military retaliated with artillery and jet fighters, claiming the lives of 30 to 35 Syrian soldiers. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also issued a message warning that “those who test Turkey’s determination with such vile attacks will understand their mistake.” Although Russia and Turkey support different parties in the conflict, the two regional powers have maintained stable relations. On February 8, a Russian delegation arrived in Turkey to discuss the situation in Idlib.

While the deaths of Turkish troops have not upset the diplomatic collaboration between Ankara and Moscow, Erdogan has toughened his stance. He referred to the dead soldiers as “martyrs” and pledged that Syrian troops will be driven back forcefully if they fail to withdraw from Idlib by the end of the month. As the Syrian government’s campaign against the rebels in Idlib rages on, the UN warns that an additional 280,000 Syrians are at risk of displacement if the violence continues to spread.