Malaysian politician and part-time convict , Anwar Ibrahim, is poised to finally lead the country. (Wikimedia Commons)

Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim said in a press conference on Wednesday that he had secured a majority in parliament to form a new government. This announcement comes seven months after the collapse of his Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, following the surprise resignation of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohammad. Now, he is seemingly on the cusp of becoming the country’s new leader nearly two years after his release from prison. To understand the current situation in Malaysia and what the future holds, it is important to understand how Malaysia ended up here.

The past four years have been a political rollercoaster for Malaysia. In 2016, Malaysia’s former leader Mahathir bin Mohamad announced he was coming out of retirement to run for prime minister, voicing anger at the corruption allegations leveled against his former protégé Najib Razak. Mahathir had previously been the head of the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the leading member of the Barisan Nasional (BN), the country’s ruling coalition since its independence in 1957.

LOCKED OUT

To stage his comeback, Mahathir struck an alliance with unlikely partner Anwar Ibrahim. Anwar had previously served as Mahathir’s deputy in 1993 and was expected to succeed him. However, aafter the Asian financial crisis of 1997, he was removed from Mahathir’s cabinet and imprisoned on charges of sodomy and corruption. Through 1998 to 2018, Anwar would repeatedly find himself in and out of prison on seemingly politically-motivated charges.

Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohammad promised to hand power over to Anwar Ibrahim before things went terribly wrong for his party. (Wikimedia Commons)

After Mahathir and PH’s victory in the 2018 elections, Anwar was freed from prison and granted a full pardon, joining Mahathir as the new leader-in-waiting; Mahathir indicated he would hand power over to Anwar within two years of their electoral victory.

Under this coalition, however, Anwar would not become the top dog. Amid infighting within the coalition, Mahathir announced his resignation in February, causing the collapse of PH’s electoral strength.

Former minister of home affairs Muhyiddin Yassin, leader of the Malaysian United Indigenous Party, used the turmoil to form an alliance with BN, providing him with enough seats in parliament to form a government excluding PH.

CORRUPTING INFLUENCES

When PH won two years ago, breaking the political hegemony BN has held for the past sixty years, there was hope that times really were changing in Malaysia. The most multi-ethnic, liberal-minded government Malaysia has ever seen rode into power on a wave of disgust for the political establishment. Much of Mahathir’s policies were focused on reforming the nation and rooting out corruption.

With Muhyiddin’s alliance with UMNO, the progress on anti-corruption reforms under Mahathir and PH is expected to unravel. Muhyiddin partners, like former Prime Minister Najib Razak, who stole billions of dollars from the state during his tenure, were the exact party responsible for the corruption the PH government tried to rid of. With Muhyiddin’s rise to power on the shoulders of UMNO, many Malaysians, such as human rights advocate Ambiga Sreenevasan, “doubt reform (or even integrity) is a priority” for the new government.

THE RACE FOR VOTES

The collapse of PH meant not only the end to anti-corruption reforms, but a return to race-based politics, which have dominated Malaysia since its independence. For decades, ethnic Malays, who make up around 70% of the country’s population, have experienced extensive affirmative action programs within the country. Since 1971, Malaysia has enshrined special privileges for Malays, giving them preferential treatment in education, employment, business, and housing.

Mahathir’s administration was unprecedented for its diversity. More than 40 percent of the cabinet ministers were non-Malay, compared to the 20 percent under Razak's government. This multi-ethnic government, however, exacerbated many Malays’ fears of losing their favored treatment.

Muhyiddin Yassin, an ethnic Malay populist, is not a big fan of Mahathir's and Anwar’s push against corruption. (Wikimedia Commons)

While PH had no intention of amending the constitution of special privileges for the Malays, any changes to the status quo resulted in stiff resistance by UMNO and other opposition parties. For example, the appointment of Malaysia's first non-muslim Attorney General, Tommy Thomas, was met by protests from Malay nationalists.

In comparison, Muhyiddin, who once said he was “Malay first,” Malaysian second, created a “coalition invested in the notion of Malay-Muslim Supremacy.” Having built a coalition with Malaysia's hardline Muslim party, the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), which has proposed implementing a strict Islamic penal code on Muslims, as well as UMNO, the Malay nationalist party which was voted out two years ago, Muhyiddin is working with parties that tend “to fall back on race and religion to maintain and gain ground,” says Serina Abdul Rahman, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. Experts expect the Prime Minister to steer the country in a more conservative direction than his predecessor.

JAILBREAK

While Prime Minister Muhyiddin managed to form a coalition, it is not a strong one. He has managed to amass barely 112 lawmakers on his side, the exact amount needed to have a simple majority in parliament. Any defections could result in the collapse of his government.

The first test of Muhyiddin’s government occured on Saturday in Sabah state. The election was widely seen as a referendum on the prime minister's seven-month-old administration. Muhyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition and its allies BN won 38 of the 73 seats up for grabs. Had PN done poorly in the election, his coalition members may have withdrawn their support from his government and forced a snap national election. Though he survived the first major electoral test, as Bridget Welsh, a Malaysia expert from the University of Nottingham, states, “[h]e remains a man on borrowed time.”

Anwar Ibrahim, however, isn’t waiting for Muhyiddin’s government to collapse electorally. He confidently claims that he holds a comfortable majority in parliament. On Wednesday, he stated that his coalition is close to two thirds of the 222 lawmakers in parliament, implying that many within Muhyiddin’s government have switched over to support Anwar.

Anwar was scheduled to meet with Malaysian King, Sultan Abdullah Ri'ayatuddin last Tuesday, but the meeting was postponed due to the Sultan's food-poisoning treatment at the National Heart Institute. Anwar stated that a number of MPs from various parties expressed dissatisfaction with Muhyiddin’s leadership: they “recognize that the country must have strong, stable and accountable leadership to manage the crisis and to do so with compassion and concern for the plight of all people who are struggling in this pandemic economy.”

Given Muhyiddin’s success in the Sabah state election, those within his coalition skeptical of his political stability may see this as a signal of his electoral mandate. Many who voiced their support of Anwar’s government could retract it and remain loyal to Muhyiddin. Should he have the votes, though, Anwar Ibrahim may finally become prime minister, reviving anti-corruption efforts and increasing multi-ethnic political participation—and he’ll finally get the position of power he was promised.