Uncertainty Over Looming Elections as Tensions Rise in Côte d’Ivoire
Alassane Ouattara, Cote d’Ivoire’s president, will be running for a third term in the country’s October 31 elections.
As the October 31 Côte d’Ivoire presidential election nears, outbursts of civil unrest have occured. In July 2020, incumbent Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara was nominated for re-election by his party, the Houphouetist Rally for Democracy and Peace (RHDP), after his intended successor, the late Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly, died of illness earlier that month. August 13 saw a violent demonstration break out in Bonoua, a center of RHDP opposition.
Ivorian opposition leaders and civilian protestors have called Ouattara’s bid for a third term unconstitutional, with a dozen killed in violent demonstrations following his candidacy announcement. Ouattara’s government argues that his term count should be annulled, as the Ivorian constitution was reformed in 2016. The Constitutional Council and the Electoral Commission upheld this argument in their controversial decisions that excluded 40 candidates from the race.
The barred candidates include former rebel leader and PM Guillaume Soro, who was sentenced in absentia to 20 years in prison on charges of embezzlement in April by Ivorian authorities, and Ouattara’s predecessor Laurent Gbagbo. In 2019, Gbagbo was charged with crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court connected to the post-election civil war of 2010 that resulted in 3,000 deaths after his refusal to concede to Ouattara. Though acquitted, Gbagbo remains exiled in Europe while prosecutors file an appeal to the ruling. The government has acknowledged similarities between the upcoming elections and those of 2010, as demonstrators have clashed with security forces on numerous occasions. A human rights advisor at the Interior Ministry stated, “I can assure you that Ivorians are aware of the situation that prevailed in 2010-11,” reassuring that they “will do everything not to fall into this human stupidity.”
On September 20, the main opposition parties gathered and announced a list of demands for their election participation, including the outright withdrawal of President Ouattara from the race. The main opposition candidate, Henri Konan Bédié of the Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire, African Democratic Party (PDIC-RDA), called for nationwide “civil disobedience” in response to what he described as “abuse of authority.” The group also called for the disestablishment of the Constitutional Council and the Electoral Commission, citing their “subservience to the ruling RHDP party,” among other reforms.
Further, analysts at Fitch Ratings have mixed predictions regarding the president’s reelection chances and the country’s chances for a peaceful outcome. Under President Ouattara’s leadership, Côte d’Ivoire’s economy has grown annually by an average of 8 percent since 2011, which is one of the fastest growth rates globally during that time period. Additionally, with major potential opponents exiled from the state and the dissolution of the PDCI-RHDP partnership in 2018, opposition to his party is limited. However, the president will likely encounter difficulty winning support from voters of the Baule ethnic group, which is the largest ethnic population in Côte d’Ivoire. Overall, Fitch Ratings states that the president’s reelection bid has been politically polarizing and has raised much uncertainty and security risk regarding the stability of the country in the lead up to and particularly after the elections.
This tense situation is not helped by the overhanging COVID-19 pandemic. The election is still on schedule, with no indication of a delay due to the pandemic, as case numbers have grown relatively slowly with just over 100 deaths after the state took early preventative and hygienic measures. However, some have accused the government of having abused the state of emergency following the pandemic to enforce a ban on public demonstrations until September 30.
Four candidates are running for the presidency, including Pascal Affi N’Guessan, head of the Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), and Kouadio Konan Bertin, a member of PDCI-RDA.