Shinzo Abe (third from right) and his second-in-command Yoshihide Suga (second from right) attend the Meeting of Senior Vice-Ministers in 2017. (Government of Japan) — *Shinzo Abe (third from right) and his second-in-command Yoshihide Suga (second from right) attend the Meeting of Senior Vice-Ministers in 2017. (Government of Japan*)

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, recently announced his intention to resign due to a long-standing stomach condition. This is not the first time Abe’s health has inhibited his work. In 2007, a year after being elected prime minister, Abe’s condition left him unable to continue at his post, and he stepped down. Reelected in 2012, Abe’s leadership has been considered successful during his 8 years in office. However, Abe’s approval ratings slipped from 44 to 27 percent between April and May, and his recent economic policies have saddled Japan with an uncertain future. So, who’s next?

The New Prime Minister

The next prime minister of Japan will be nominally determined by Japan’s parliament, the National Diet. However, Abe’s party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), will really choose his successor, as the LPD and its coalition partner Komeito hold a comfortable majority within the Diet.

There are two ways to elect the president of the LDP. The first is through an open election. In this sort of election, the members of the LDP in the Diet account for half of the 788 total votes while rank-and-file party members account for the other half. The second, quicker method sets aside 535 votes for the LDP’s Diet members while remaining votes are allotted to three representatives, each voting on behalf of one of the LDP prefectoral (or regional) chapters.

Though the LDP’s 2018 election employed the first method, this month’s election will use the latter so that a new leader may be chosen quickly, given the global pandemic. The election will occur on September 14 between three candidates vying for the LPD leadership position. To be elected as the next president of the LDP will require the candidates to rally the support of the party’s leaders and regional bosses, meaning that the older, better-connected contenders have an undeniable advantage.

So who’s who?

Former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida. (Advait Arun)

The Heir-Not-Apparent: Fumio Kishida

Fumio Kishida is the leader of the LDP’s dovish Kochikai faction, which has been less keen on revising the constitution's pacifist Article 9 than Abe. Kishida served as Foreign Minister within Abe’s Cabinet from 2012 to 2017 and then left to assume the chairmanship of the LDP Policy Research Council. This position is widely viewed as a stepping stone towards becoming party president. Within the LDP, it was commonly believed Kishida would follow Abe as prime minister. Abe even convinced Kishida not to run during the 2018 leadership election, suggesting instead that he would back Kishida as his successor. But, now, Abe is silent.

Abe’s silence notwithstanding, Kishida isn’t popular. Perceptions of the former foreign minister have soured since his 2018 political high, and key senior LDP lawmakers have shifted their support to other candidates. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso, leader of the Ikokai faction within the LDP, told a colleague recently that “Kishida is for peacetime, not for troubled times.”

Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba. (Advait Arun)

For Use In Troubled Times: Shigeru Ishiba

Former Japanese Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba is standing for his fourth leadership election, having previously run in 2008, 2012, and 2018. Ishiba, who has long criticized Abe, leads the Suigetsukai faction within the LDP. However, he has shunned internal factions, and he forcefully maintains that the influence of party factions in determining the presidency is bad for both democracy and the party.

Ishiba regularly polls highly with the public as the person most fit to run the country—even higher than Abe. However, leaders of his party greatly dislike him. This dislike was reflected in his 2018 challenge to Abe for party leadership, where though Ishiba barely lost to Abe when considering votes from rank-and-file party members, he lost handily with National Diet members comprising LDP leadership. In order to become president of the LDP, Ishiba must first overcome the leadership’s resistance. With the election so soon, that doesn’t look likely.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga. (Advait Arun)

Primed for Power: Yoshihide Suga

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, the son of a strawberry farmer from Northern Japan, worked his way through college, using his wages from a cardboard factory and a fish market to pay for night-school at Hosei University. When Abe was reelected in 2012, Suga became the de facto No. 2 in Abe’s government.

Years of work as Abe’s lieutenant have seemingly paid off. Now favored for the LDP presidency, almost every party decision has seemingly benefited Suga. The LDP General Affairs Committee’s decision to exclude rank-and-file party members from the leadership election gave Suga a huge boost. Although Suga does not claim Ishiba’s level of party member support, he already has the support of the LDP’s leadership, which now has an outsize influence in the election. Despite not being in a faction himself, Suga has managed to secure the support of five of the seven LDP factions, the exceptions being the factions controlled by Kishida and Ishida.

Many argue that he managed this feat through his alliance with party heavyweight Toshihiro Nikai, the LDP's secretary general, who controls how the party allocates campaign funds. Through this alliance, along with Abe’s refusal so far to lend support to Kishida, Suga will almost certainly succeed Abe.

The LDP's presidential election speeches in Nagano, 2012. Ishiba and Abe stand next to each other in the center-right. (Wikimedia Commons)

Prime Minister, but at What Cost?

When Suga displayed the name of the new Reiwa Era in May 2019, he signaled the beginning of a new imperial era for Japan. Similarly, his prospective tenure as the prime minister may also signal the beginning of a new political era for Japan. Just like after Abe’s resignation in 2007, political turnover will likely occur within the party. Daniel Sneider, an expert on East Asian Studies at Stanford, noted, “No matter who’s prime minister, we’re going to see a weaker government, the next person is not going to be the person who is ultimately going to emerge as the next significant leader of Japan.”

While Suga may be a safe choice within the LDP’s upper echelons, he may not be appealing when the general election happens next year. At a time when the LDP’s opponents, the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Democratic Party for the People, are consolidating, the LDP needs to recover from Abe’s unpopularity and a shaky economy in order to stay in power. If Suga cannot do that, then maybe Ishiba will have the last laugh here. Backroom politics won’t mean anything without public support.