Angela Merkel - The Last (Wo)man Standing

The chancellor of Germany has been called the “Liberal West’s Last Defender” by The New York Times in the recent troubled weeks of international politics. President Obama recently admitted during his visit to Berlin that he would support Merkel if he had the option as a German citizen. This positive perception of Merkel is not widely shared in her home country, however, and it remains unclear how long she will be able to remain the liberal leader of the world, particularly with Germany’s elections set for the fall of next year. Merkel announced on November 20 that she will run for reelection in Germany’s upcoming federal elections. Merkel’s announcement followed heightened speculations about her political plans after Norbert Roentgen, a fellow politician of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and a close friend of Merkel, stated her intention to run in mid-November in an interview with CNN. Merkel explained her decision to run for a fourth term as an attempt to stabilize the country during insecure times.

Though Merkel is seen as a stable force internationally, her position in national politics is less certain, as are her chances of reelection. As of now, Germany’s leftist party, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) - at present a coalition party of the Union, The Greens, and the Left Party (DL) - is already building a possible coalition against the more conservative joint union of the CDU and Christian Social Union (CSU), a coalition which Merkel leads. Though the threat may not be imminent, since the SPD does not yet have a candidate for chancellor and recent polls show the SPD is not expected to win a majority of votes, the possibility of an SPD candidate might worry Merkel.

However, recent polling reveals that the CDU-CSU Union is in a peculiar situation as well. Their only chance to govern would be a continuation of the coalition with the SP, having lost votes to the Alternative for Germany (AfD) over the last year. This party, having a rightist orientation, could gain even more votes than the 12 percent they currently hold in Germany’s conservative political climate, which bears similarities to that of the United States and Great Britain. All three powerful Western countries have witnessed an increase in conservative voters; Great Britain and the United States have already seen the electoral outcome of increased conservative turnout. Germany could find itself in a comparable situation come fall if the AfD gains even larger approval in the population.

This situation indicates that the international praise Merkel has received of late does not mirror her controversial standing in Germany and throughout the European Union.

Germany’s Left and the EU have continuously criticized her austerity policy towards Greece and her resolute stance on cutbacks during the Euro crisis. Similarly problematic was Merkel’s decision to let refugees stranded in Budapest cross the border to Germany in 2015. Though many in Germany’s Left embraced this decision, the AfD’s criticism of it resulted in a large upswing in votes from citizens who felt threatened by this decision. It also spurred misgivings in her own rows, especially between Merkel’s CDU and its partner party, the CSU, which earns votes only in the state of Bavaria.

Ultimately, Merkel is not as popular in Germany right now as she is internationally. Her governing motto, “Wir schaffen das” (“We will succeed” -- in reference to coping with and integrating the refugees that the country has taken in) has been criticized by politicians and the news media from all sides.

Merkel’s standing in the wider European Union is another difficult subject. As the leader of the most powerful state of the EU, Merkel has largely been portrayed as an iron lady. Since the refugee crisis, however, prominent nationalist governments in eastern states such as Poland and Hungary have formed an opposition force against her. Merkel’s position is further compromised by Great Britain's - one of Germany’s major partners - plans to leave the EU. The criticism of European immigration remains one of the main points of the Brexit “Leave” campaign. Another threat is already on the horizon in Marine Le Pen, the conservative head of France’s National Front (FN) party. Le Pen, a rightist leader with policies similar to that of Germany’s AfD, could be elected as the next leader of France, Germany’s closest ally in the EU, next year.

Even if Merkel is Europe’s last liberal standing right now, it will remain unclear if and for how long she will be able to keep standing. The futures of Germany, the EU, and the West therefore remain quite uncertain.