North Korea Proposes Changes after U.S. Election
In the wake of the U.S. election, North Korea has made a new diplomatic offer to normalize relations with the United States in exchange for withdrawal of American forces from the Korean peninsula. This offer became public in an interview with North Korean UN Ambassador So Se Pyong during unofficial meetings between American and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) officials in Geneva, Switzerland. Although the Korean War ceased active combat in 1953 with an armistice, the two warring factions have yet to officially ink a formal peace treaty, and both South and North Korea officially lay claim to the whole of the peninsula.
Such a change in policy would be a drastic shift for both American and North Korean politics, though no American officials have yet commented on the informal proposal. Despite this apparent silence, likely American attitudes are not difficult to ascertain.
Since the Second World War, South Korea has served as a staging point in the East Asian sphere for the United States Armed Forces, and as such represents a strategic interest. It is unlikely that the U.S. would give up such an interest diplomatically. Furthermore, American officials likely worry the removal of American forces might remove the deterrence factor from North Korea’s calculus, thus making a reigniting of combat on the peninsula more probable.
Despite these fears, the DPRK would have an uphill battle of trying to conquer the Republic of Korea (ROK). The world has changed substantially since the Korean War. Although North Korea still maintains one of the largest armies in the world, it is extremely ground-based, with infantry and ground vehicles making up most of its firepower. South Korea, conversely, has invested much of its generated wealth into advanced weapons systems such as aircraft and naval equipment, all of which is up to date. Meanwhile North Korea continues to use some Soviet-era gear. As such, even without American support, it is likely that South Korea could hold off a conventional assault from the North, though casualties of over 1 million could be plausible. Whether the DPRK would attempt to leverage its nuclear capabilities would then be the question at hand.
