Balkan Flooding
The brunt of Cyclone Tamara was concentrated mainly in the Balkan states of Bosnia and Serbia. The flooding has already led to 51 deaths and displaced half a million people. In Serbia, over 2,000 miles of roads are in desperate are either damaged or destroyed and 30 percent of all railway lines are closed. Equally catastrophic, the floods in Bosnia wrecked the northern agricultural industry and affected a quarter of its 4 million population.
For the past month, the Balkans have been dealing with the aftermath of the deadliest flooding the region has experienced since records began 120 years ago. Meteorologists say a three-month amount of rain fell on the region over the span of three days in mid-May, causing severe flash floods and landslides.
With temperatures approaching 86 Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius), health officials and scores of volunteers are working to remove the thousands of rotting livestock carcasses in an attempt to mitigate the spread of disease and risk of epidemics. Concomitantly, the Bosnian government has been trying to allocate resources to ensure public safety from the 120,000 unexploded mines littered around the country, a legacy of the 1992-1995 Balkan conflict. The floods triggered landslides and dispersed debris, which severely jeopardized the recent efforts to mark and demine.
The two Balkan states are host to two of the weakest economies on the continent, amplifying the economic implications of the floods. Official unemployment rates already reach 20 percent, while the actual unemployment rates are estimated to be near 44 percent. Serbia’s economy grew at a respectable rate of 2.5% in 2013; however, the forecast for its 2014 growth before the floods was already a meager 1% due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and expected domestic austerity measures. The outlook may change further following the assessment of the region after the floods completely recede.
Despite thousands of residents collecting tons of foods blankets and clothing for the crisis-hit areas, the aid from development funds will be essential for the governments to improve its lapses in future flood prevention. Ratko Ristic, a professor at the state Forestry Faculty in Belgrade, pointed out that poor coordination, chaotic urban planning and lack of proper flood-protection mechanisms after decades of negligence greatly exacerbated the effects of the disaster.
Unaccountable governments and the rarity of property insurance leave the victims, some 100,000 homes and 230 schools, with little chance of restitution. Although none of the statistics measuring the damages official, preliminary estimates set the bill at 1.3 billion euros ($1.8 billion) for Bosnia alone. Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic stated that damages in his country could reach 1.5 billion euros ($2 billion). The costs are magnified when compared to the $18.87 and $43.68 billion gross domestic product (GDP) of Bosnia and Serbia, respectively, and will significantly hamper the economic recovery of both nations
In addition to the mobilization of the international community for supplies and rescue workers, the affected countries are seeking funds from different channels in hopes of finding a way to secure aid to facilitate long-term economic recovery. Because Croatia is a member and Serbia a candidate nation of the European Union, the two governments are eligible to apply for aid from the European Union Solidarity Fund. The fund in 2014 is worth 500 million euros and individual countries can expect to receive around 10 million euros, provided the damage is assessed to be over 0.64 percent of the countries GDP. The damage in Serbia is expected to be well more than the 175 million euros needed to apply. The fund, which was created in 2002, has since provided 3.6 billion euros to 23 countries around Europe.
Even though Bosnia is not eligible for the European Union Solidarity Fund, the country will receive special attention, along with Serbia, from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Mr. Patrone, chief of the EBRD’s Belgrade office, announced on Wednesday that “Although [the ESRB] focus on medium- and long-term development, that doesn’t mean [they] won’t be quick in taking measures.” The bank, a multilateral development institution based in London, will consider ramping up its investment program for the Balkans in response to the floods and may move funds already approved for certain projects into the areas in greater need.