Where To Turn?

The recent victory of Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France’s European legislative ballot certainly says a lot about the current state of affairs in the Union. However, given France’s history of using aforementioned ballots to voice national grievances, this outcome must be understood within the context of domestic politics. Just as how French euroscepticism can be traced back to the shortcomings of mainstream political parties, so can their endemic infighting and official party positions explain Le Pen’s increasing traction amongst France’s many alienated voters. The vote for Le Pen was at least as much against sitting president François Hollande as it was in favor of any of Le Pen’s ideas, and Frontists were not alone in expressing dissatisfaction with two years of Socialist presidency. Failing to deliver on a promise-filled election platform, the incumbent stands as France’s least popular president to date. Last May, polls showed that his popularity was down to 18%. The number has only continued to slope downward and is unlikely to experience any significant reversal until Hollande can finally show either improvement in the stagnant unemployment rate, reduction in the budget deficit, or growth in the economy while at the same time displaying enough authority and charisma to successfully disavow the nickname “flanby” (an affectionate reference to the famous brand of flan).

Hollande’s plummeting support rates have dealt a considerable blow to the Socialist Party. During the Sarkozy years, the Left profited from the contentiousness of the president’s policies and singular style of governance, emerging as the dominant party in nearly every major ballot. In 2008, they even obtained a majority in the historically conservative Senate for the first time in France’s Fifth Republic. Hollande’s ascendance to the presidency was the natural continuation of this trend, but it also marked its abrupt end. Since 2012, the ruling party has lost every major ballot, and it seems unlikely that it will experience a reversal of fortune in next year’s regional and departmental elections. Recent figures have even shown a 60% decline in the party’s revenue from membership dues, a sign that Socialists might be losing their strong militant base.

The president’s weight on the Socialists is such that many of their elected officials don’t even bother concealing their dissatisfaction with the government. Despite having a clear majority in the National Assembly, the executive was only narrowly able to pass its proposed budgets for state and social security due to the abstention of a growing number of left-wing representatives. The ranks of these “frondeurs” (rebels) have been constantly growing throughout the past months with recent additions including  two former ministers and other party heavyweights such as Lille mayor Martine Aubry, who has openly denounced Hollande’s economic policies.

The right-wing Union for a Popular Movement, the de facto opposition of the current government, has done little to take advantage of popular disillusionment with the executive power as it suffers through its own political crisis. Marred by a highly publicized war of succession following ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy’s ephemeral political retirement and an endless series of scandals related to the financing of Sarkozy’s failed re-election campaign, France’s right-of-center has struggled to position itself as a sensible alternative to the incumbency. As the various party figures fell over themselves to support the policies of their preferred would-be leader, it was difficult for voters to identify any intelligible alternatives to Hollande’s policies, yet alone trust their ability to run a more effective government.

With French voter faith in mainstream parties and their Union in Brussels at an all time low, there are some who see Sarkozy as the political class’ only hope. For the moment, his rivals and most voters disagree.

Given the recent shipwreck of mainstream parties, little was needed of Le Pen to present her platform as the only one with a seemingly coherent and clearly defined plan that addresses the growing concerns of the population. It is no surprise that a majority of French voters now see her as Hollande’s main opponent in the political sphere. Rejecting the far-right label as part of its policy of dédiabolisation, the National Front refers to the mainstream parties as a single entity, the UMPS. According to Le Pen’s rhetoric, this monolith only perpetuates France’s many troubles with its stale and repetitive ideas while also allowing Brussels to sustain its control over France’s future. Given the example set by the two dominant parties and the widespread incomprehension surrounding the role of the European Union, it is easy to understand the popular appeal of such rhetoric, or at least the value of the National Front as a vote of protest.

Nevertheless, despite the National Front’s conspicuous aspirations to the presidency, France is unlikely to be ruled by the likes of Le Pen anytime soon. Most French voters don’t view her party as capable of running the country. Still, her increasing popularity ensures that she will occupy an ever-larger role in the political arena - one that can no longer be overlooked and derided by the traditional parties. Rather than lamenting the perceived (and indeed worrisome) rise in anti-immigrant and nationalist sentiment, the French political class should heed the message that is responsible for Le Pen’s popularity: the French voters want a new direction for the future of their country.